College Football Week 5

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abpk2903
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College Football Week 5

Postby abpk2903 » September 26th, 2018, 1:03 pm

Through 4 weeks:

Local Games: 6-1

Five Others to Watch: 12-8

 

Local Games:

No. 9 Penn State vs No. 4 Ohio State – 7:30 pm ABC (Ohio State -3.5)

I don’t think I need to go into detail about the importance of this game but most people think it will determine who plays in the B1G Championship game for the 3rd year in a row.  I’m not so quick to make that assumption.  Michigan and Michigan State are both coming around and will throw their hat into this race down the stretch but the loser definitely has a very difficult path.  Both teams can put the ball in the endzone and have quarterbacks that have looked like fringe Heisman candidates through 4 games.  The Buckeyes are going to be missing a future top 5 NFL draft pick in Nick Bosa but they may be the deepest team in the country.   Penn State had two cornerbacks go down last week in Donovon and Castro-Fields but they both appear on the depth chart for this week.   John Reid just doesn’t look like the John Reid of before his ACL injury so it is important that they are able to go. I really think the battle here is going to be which defense can force stops and redzone field goals.  I think Ohio State is a better team by about a touchdown but a whiteout in Happy Valley can really be a daunting environment for a quarterback, in Haskins, that has never made a true road game start. 

My prediction:  Ohio State 42 – Penn State 41

No. 16 UCF vs Pittsburgh – 3:30 ESPNU (UCF -13)

Speaking of fringe Heisman candidate quarterbacks, McKenzie Milton at UCF is just a masterful player.  Much like Trace McSorley he was under-recruited out of high school because of his size but has won and competed well at everything from pop-warner to high school to camps.   If there is one thing Pat Narduzzi has done well while at Pitt it is the ability to get his team ready to go for big games.  He has beaten Penn State, Clemson, and Miami in the last 3 years.  You would also think at some point UCF is going to lose.  UCF is coming off a win over a blooming in-state rival in the FAU Owls and Pitt is coming in off of a disappointing performance against a very bad North Carolina team.   I really want to pick Pitt to win this one and I could convince myself that they will BUT I just don’t think Pitt can score at the pace they will need to in order to win.

My prediction: UCF 38 – Pitt 28

 

Five Others to Watch:

No. 3 Clemson vs Syracuse 12:00 ABC (Clemson -24)

Is this the most challenging game left on Clemson’s regular season schedule?  Syracuse upset Clemson last year and is humming with a 4-0 start which includes a 30-7 shellacking of Florida State.  Eric Dungey is another good quarterback that leads the Orange in both passing and rushing.  Clemson is also moving on from Kelly Bryant who announced he would be transferring and now putting all of their chips on a true freshman in Trevor Lawrence.  How will Lawrence play knowing there isn’t a veteran QB ready to go if he begins to struggle?  Man, Clemson has an easy schedule this year.

My prediction: Clemson 35 – Syracuse 20

No. 25 Texas Tech vs No. 12 West Virginia 12:00 ESPN2 (WVU -3.5)

After opening up the season with an absolute dud against Ole’ Miss, Texas Tech has looked like a contender in the Big 12.  They went into Stillwater last week and put a thumping on Oklahoma State. A win here and Kliff Kingsbury will probably have won his way off of the coaching hot seat.  West Virginia looks as good as any team in the country through their first 3 games but it looks like they may have had Tennessee and Kansas State early on in difficult seasons for those programs.  We all know about Will Grier and his arsenal of offensive weapons.  This one will be a barn burner.

My prediction: West Virginia 55 – Texas Tech 45

No. 17 Kentucky vs South Carolina 7:30 SEC Network (Kentucky -1)

South Carolina actually opened as the favorite but the line has moved throughout the week.  Kentucky looks like a very good football team and I think they are solidly the second best team in the SEC East.  As I mentioned last week Terry Wilson at QB and Benny Snell Jr at RB is a pretty lethal combination.  They beat a very good Mississippi State team pretty convincingly.  The jury is out on South Carolina.  They lost pretty handedly to Georgia after hanging tough for a half but not many teams in the country could hang with UGA for 4 quarters.  I really like the first unit on this team but Will Muschamp is still building depth after Steve Spurrier refused to recruit during the last several years of his career.  We will find out which of these teams look to be New Year’s Day bowl caliber team and which of these teams may just be fighting for bowl eligibility.

My prediction:  South Carolina 23 – Kentucky 19

No. 8 Notre Dame vs No. 7 Stanford 7:30 NBC (Notre Dame -5.5)

If Notre Dame can get past Stanford, it sets up really nicely to find their way to the College Football Playoff.  Both teams played road games last week and have a pretty quick turnaround for their biggest game of the year. I still don’t understand how Stanford won that game last week and Notre Dame looked like an entirely new team with Ian Book under center replacing Brandon Wimbush.  Stanford has had a brutal early season schedule featuring USC, Oregon, even a formidable San Diego State.  Now they have to travel to South Bend.  Will they look tired and beat down or did the early schedule prepare them for this environment? 

My prediction: Stanford 24 – Notre Dame 16

No. 11 Washington vs No. 20 BYU 8:30 Fox (Washington -17.5)

Vegas must know something that I don’t on this one.  Both teams have a big road win (BYU over Wisconsin, Washington over Utah) and both teams have a respectable loss (Cal over BYU, Auburn over Washington).  Maybe I am missing something but both of these teams look pretty similar through 4 weeks for a 17.5 point spread.  Once again, Jake Browning will lead the Washington offense but surprisingly their defense looks like a better unit through this point.  BYU is only giving up 17 points a game and looks like a very physical football team.

My prediction: Washington 30 – BYU 23



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