College football playoff race: Who do you think should get in?

[konjo78]

You said it best, its about a chance. Theyve done everything as a team they could to earn a shot but people would rather say they should never get a chance

[abpk2903]

[font=Arial]If Georgia beats Alabama or a Pitt upset of Clemson and all hell will break loose. [/font]

[font=Arial]Here is my breakdown 1 through 7 (I’ll include UCF even though I think they aren’t even one of the 10 best teams in the country).[/font]

[font=Arial]TIER 1:[/font]

[ol]1. Alabama – By far the best team I have seen this year and with a win against UGA will be the #1 seed.  They are the first team since the 1800s to win every game in the regular season by at least 20 points.  I think their 2nd team would probably be in the discussion to make the playoffs.  With that said, the schedule was a joke again by Nick Saban.  8 conference games, a bye or FCS school before every marquee game on the schedule, didn’t play a road OOC game (again), didn’t play Florida or Georgia or Kentucky or South Carolina in the crossover, and best OOC game was against 2-10 Louisville.  They do not want to lose Saturday because this resume WILL NOT COMPETE with teams 2-6 on my list and the only way they will get in is by eye-test and reputation alone.[/ol]

[font=Arial]TIER 2:[/font]

[font=Arial]2. Notre Dame – If you put these teams on paper, right now ND has a better resume than Clemson.  They have best wins over Michigan, Northwestern, Stanford and Pitt which is slightly better than Clemson’s  best win’s over Texas A&M, NC State, Boston College, and South Carolina.  ND also holds an advantage with a 36-3 win over Syracuse in which Clemson only beat by 4.  This is what is frustrating to me about the committee, how do you put these schedules and results side by side and still place Clemson at #2 currently?[/font]

[li][font=Arial]3. Clemson – The Tigers do have the chance to stake claim as the 2[sup]nd[/sup] best team in the country this weekend if they can beat Pitt convincingly.  They should, Pitt is the worst football team that I have ever seen play for a P5 conference title.  But ND only beat them 19-14.  A 3 TD win this weekend should put them at #2 in my opinion.[/font][/li]


[font=Arial]TIER 3:[/font]

[ol]4. Georgia – Though I don’t see a super great quality win.  A neutral site win over 11th ranked Florida is the gem of their resume.  However, they have been solid and convincing in all of their games except their lone loss to LSU.  It’s really the depth of the body of work that has them here with wins over Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Auburn, Kentucky, Missouri, and Tennessee.  They have to BEAT Alabama to stay in my top 4.  They just don’t have the wins on their resume that an Oklahoma or Ohio State does without beating Bama.[/ol]
[ol]5. Ohio State – Look, they have looked lost for most of the season.  The media has done a great job of continuing the narrative of turmoil and dysfunction.  With that the case, they still have a 3 score win over top 10 Michigan, a road win over 12th ranked Penn State, along with wins over Michigan State, TCU, and Minnesota.   Sure they played a lot of games closer than they should have but they have 2 great wins on their resume.  For some reason, Ohio State playing some teams they shouldn’t closely doesn’t hurt them the way it seems to be hurting…[/ol]
[ol]6. Oklahoma – I’m sorry but their lack of defense is inexcusable.  They also lack a win that is even comparable to the wins that the 2 teams above them have.  WVU on the road is not as quality of a win as Penn State on the road, Michigan by 3 scores, or Florida at a neutral site.  I would also argue that Oklahoma has put together more clunkers than Ohio State this year.  They needed a late score to beat Iowa State by 10, they needed overtime to beat Army at home, they only beat Texas Tech by 5, and they beat Oklahoma State by 1 point.   The advantage the Sooners have is they get a chance to score their best win the season this weekend against Texas.  I’m still not sure it will be enough, they better do so convincingly.[/ol]

[font=Arial]TIER 4:[/font]

[font=Arial]7. Central Florida – Here is the reality of the situation and just my opinion.  Any of the teams above them on this list would be undefeated with their schedule. I also feel that if they played any of the schedules that the 6 teams above them on this list played, they would have 2 or 3 losses.  You can feel differently and I’m not saying you’re wrong but this is how I feel.  Let’s use a local high school football analogy.  How often do we see teams go undefeated, look amazing doing it in a sub-par conference only to get to districts and lose by 4 scores to a team that was 7-3 in a lot stronger conference?  Almost every year.[/font]

[font=Arial] [/font]

[font=Arial]How each team makes the playoffs:[/font]

[font=Arial]Alabama – Just win against Georgia[/font]

[font=Arial]Clemson – Just win against Pitt[/font]

[font=Arial]ND – It’s out of their hands[/font]

[font=Arial]Georgia – Just win against Alabama[/font]

[font=Arial]Ohio State – Win by 3+ scores against Northwestern[/font]

[font=Arial]Oklahoma – Win by multiple scores against Texas, get a loss from Clemson or Ohio State[/font]

[font=Arial]UCF – No chance[/font]

[font=Arial]How each team misses the playoffs:[/font]

[font=Arial]Alabama – The committee is going to have one heck of a justification to make if they put Alabama in for a second straight year without a conference championship or quality OOC win.  They also didn’t have an undefeated ND sitting there waiting to eat up a spot in the final four or a 2 loss B1G champion like they did last year.[/font]

[font=Arial]Clemson – A loss to 7-5 Pitt on conference championship Saturday would cause Clemson to miss the playoffs with their lack of high quality wins.[/font]

[font=Arial]ND – I don’t think they are a lock as much as they think they are.  A Georgia win, Clemson win, Ohio State blowout, and Oklahoma win really could make the folks in South Bend very anxious heading into Selection Sunday.[/font]

[font=Arial]Georgia – A loss to Alabama coupled with a win by Ohio State or Oklahoma will knock them out.[/font]

[font=Arial]Ohio State – Anything but a multiple score win against NW will take away any hope of a playoff birth.[/font]

[font=Arial]Oklahoma – Anything but a convincing win against Texas takes away most hope of a playoff birth.[/font]

[font=Arial]UCF - Eliminated[/font]

[CCDevil2012]

It is interesting that when they put the committee in place they wanted to see more quality OOC games yet despite this Alabama is still rewarded for their weak wins. I don’t think ND is #2 worthy because their wins have not been as convincing as Clemson. Pitt and USC played them tough. At this point I’d rather see UCF in over a Georgia or Ohio State, just to settle all the debate. If you expect Alabama to win anyways then what’s it matter if they beat Georgia or UCF? But I just don’t understand how in one breath people criticize and disqualify P5 teams when they have weak a OOC but in the next praise UCF for beating those same teams as their entire schedule. 
“Penn State sucks! Their best win is Pitt who is trash!”
“UCF should be in the playoffs, they’re undefeated!” “But they haven’t beaten anyone good.” “Yea they did, they blew out Pitt!”

[Crimson's Ghost]

[font=Arial] They should, Pitt is the worst football team that I have ever seen play for a P5 conference title.  But ND only beat them 19-14.  A 3 TD win this weekend should put them at #2 in my opinion.[/font]

I had considered that as well, but I found some competitors. 

2005 Colorado 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Colo ... tball_team

2011 UCLA. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_UCLA ... tball_team

2012 GT
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Geor ... tball_team


UCLA in 2011 was actually by far the worst team of the group and holds this distinction. It didn't actually win the division, USC was under sanctions and wasn't eligible to participate. So while Pitt is around the bottom 5, I don't believe it is the worst P5 team to play for a championship.

[12HankQB]

At least GT and UCLA had close title games....Colorado...70-3...woof

[Crimson's Ghost]

At least GT and UCLA had close title games....Colorado...70-3...woof

And the 67-point loss is the worst in a major conference championship game ever I do believe.  So they might take the cake also. 

[abpk2903]

I probably shouldn’t have said that and they probably aren’t the worst. I remember one year the B1G sent it’s 3rd place team in a division to the championship game (Nebraska if memory serves me right) because both Ohio State and Penn State were under sanctions.

Also, I don’t think we can ignore the fact that Northwestern went 0-3 this year out of conference. They got blown out at home by Duke, lost to Akron, and lost to Notre Dame. 

Here’s the thing with Pitt. IF they can hang tight through about 40 minutes and possess the ball they can beat nearly anyone. They also can lose by 4 TDs because they have no capability of mounting a comeback. 

[Crimson's Ghost]

I don’t see Pitt winning but Narduzzi has done remarkably well getting his teams up to play top 5 teams factoring in 2016 Clemson, 2017 Miami, and Notre Dame this year.  So maybe they’ll hang for a quarter or two. I have Clemson winning like 38-14, which I think aligns with Vegas.

[223113]

If you dont win your conference you shouldnt be able to qualify period!!!

We already have a invisible barrier that 5 conferences are miles ahead of the rest we do not need a new barrier that one conference should always get 2 teams in, which would start to become a precedent for SEC if bama loses and gets in.

Alabama who didn't win there conference  got in last year 

This precedent was set a couple years ago, when Ohio State, Didn't Even Play in their Conference Championship, and leapfrogged over Penn State AND Wisconsin.
Alabama will get in, win or lose.
Clemson, in, win or lose.
Notre Dame, in.
Ohio State, win and in, leapfrogging Georgia and Oklahoma,....shocker,....not.

[Manfred]

I think Bethune-Cookman has a shot. And Colorado School of Mines.