Week 10 picks
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Week 10 picks
Heading into week 10, I hold a four game lead over TAE, 370-119 to 366-123. And to answer ham's questions, here's the link to TAE's picks for last Saturday: http://www.bleachercoaches.com/viewtopic.php?t=6517.
The interesting thing about this particular week is that there is football on every single day. Sunday and Monday have NFL games, and Tuesday through Saturday all have at least one college football game on each day. So getting right into the mix....
Tuesday night at 7:30 pm
UAB Blazers at Memphis Tigers
Memphis is one of the best rushing teams in C-USA, and they have the best running back with DeAngelo Williams. So the key to the game for UAB is stopping the rushing attack. Is that going to happen? No way. Memphis by 13.
Wednesday night at 7:30 pm
Connecticut Huskies at West Virginia Mountaineers
This is a nice lay up game for WVU. They have a decent Connecticut team at home, but this team is now playing with its third string QB. That makes what was once a pretty decent UConn team a team that will struggle to make a bowl game. I don't like their chances of making a bowl game, and their chances of winning this game are even worse. WVU by 17.
Thursday night at 7:30 pm
Pittsburgh Panthers at Louisville Cardinals
At the beginning of the year, I, as well as many others, had this billed as the Big East title game and the only game Louisville could possibly lose. It turns out we were all wrong. Instead, this is a game between a Louisville team that never seems to win on the road versus a Pitt team that is nowhere near the preseason expectations. However, Louisville, despite all its road woes, is a completely different team at home, and scored over 60 points twice at home. That doesn't bode well for Pitt. Louisville by 27.
Friday night at 8:00 pm
Toledo Rockets at Ohio Bobcats
Toledo lost to CMU this past weekend, while Ohio handled a winless Buffalo team. So looking at it this way, there are two things that can happen. Toledo either A) comes out completely flat after losing a game it shouldn't have, and plays badly in a loss to Ohio, or B) realizes that they are still in the race for the MAC title if they win out and CMU loses a game. My selection for this is going to be B. Ohio's scoring defense is terrible, and they are 4-4 despite being outscored, on average, 30-20 every game. Toledo has a lot of offense, and is going to take advantage. Toledo by 17.
Saturday at noon
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Indiana Hoosiers
As much as I admire what Terry Hoeppner has done for Indiana, the schedule is still too tough for the Hoosiers to have a winning season, and this team still isn't quite good enough to compete with the upper mid tier Big Ten teams. So unfortunately, they won't get a win in this game, but they might be able to keep it close for a half before Laurence Maroney runs away with it. Minnesota by 20.
Boston College Eagles at North Carolina Tar Heels
As bad as Bunting needs 6 wins and a bowl to hold onto his job, he isn't going to get it. Boston College, Maryland, Duke, and a game at Virginia Tech isn't a nice schedule when you need 3 wins to get to a winning record. Sorry John, your job is likely a lost cause. Boston College has had nine days to prepare, and they are simply the better team. BC by 17.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats
Well, Northwestern is still a pretty decent team, and after a down week against Michigan, they'll come out ready to play against Iowa. Here's the problem though: Iowa has had two weeks to prepare for this game, while Northwestern hasn't. That can only mean one thing: As good as Northwestern is, they'll still probably lose. Iowa by 3.
Michigan State Spartans at Purdue Boilermakers
Michigan State is breathing a sigh of relief now. After losing three straight, they have a chance to get relatively easy back to back wins. They already got one of those against an Indiana team that isn't quite there yet. In part two of the relatively easy back to back wins, they travel to a Purdue squad that has greatly underachieved in comparision to this year's expectations, going 2-6 after being a sleeper pick for the BCS and Rose Bowl. This will be Michigan State's sixth win, with games at Minnesota and against Penn State left. That at least gets MSU six wins and a bowl, if nothing else. Michigan State by 17.
South Florida Bulls at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
This is actually a slight shocker. First off, Rutgers is favored by 2.5 points. Second, with the remaining schedule for Rutgers after this game simply being a road trip to Louisville and a home game against Cincinnati, this Rutgers squad has a pretty legit chance to be 8-3. South Florida, in the meantime, has played some tough opponents (Penn State and Miami), but also lost a game to Pitt. I don't like that. And even worse is that instead of having two weeks to prepare, they've had three weeks, which means South Florida is going to come out a big flat. They're also traveling on the road to Rutgers, which is sure to have some fired up football fans now that their team is actually (gasp!) winning. With so many things working against South Florida, I just can't pick them. So I'll take Rutgers by 3.
Saturday at 12:30 pm
South Carolina Gamecocks at Arkansas Razorbacks
Steve Spurrier has pulled off a bit of an upset by beating Tennessee at Neyland Stadium. Apparently while his offense hasn't quite found itself yet, his defense had enough to keep a struggling Tennessee squad from scoring too many points. And with a game at Arkansas, I'll pick the offensive mastermind to win yet another game- with his defense. South Carolina by 10.
Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears
This is nationally televised on Foxsports. You have got to be kidding me! Apparently FSN has decided it is their responsibility to trump up Texas and try to bail out the BCS so public perception won't turn against it when a more deserving Virginia Tech squad is hung out to dry. That's the only reason I can see for them putting a blowout of Baylor on national television. Texas by 45.
Saturday at 1:00 pm
Northern Illinois Huskies at Central Michigan Chippewas
Interestingly enough, CMU is 5-3, but their defense is giving up about 25 yards per game than their offense is getting, and their offense is outscoring the other team by only 0.3 points per game. However, with Western Michigan and Ball State left on the schedule, they have a decent shot to go 8-3. However, I still think CMU's win over Toledo was a fluke, and that CMU is also going to come out a smidgen flat after that highly emotional win over Toledo. In other words, NIU is going to ruin CMU's chances of an 8-3 season. Northern Illinois by 7.
Duke Blue Devils at Clemson Tigers
Duke is the ACC bottom feeder, and they are so bad that Wake Forest, the team next to the bottom in the ACC, blew them out. Duke has one win, and it's going to stay that way. Clemson by 30.
Western Michigan Broncos at Eastern Michigan Eagles
Western Michigan is another Michigan team that could go 8-3 if they beat the two other MAC Michigan teams and NIU. EMU is just playing for a winning season, and they'll need an upset here to pull it off. Unfortunately for them, a winning season just isn't in the cards. WMU by 10.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Kansas Jayhawks
The Huskers are traveling to the worst team in the Big 12 North, and looking for an easy win to pick them up a bit after a tough loss to Oklahoma. They'll find it here. Nebraska by 17.
Auburn Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats
Rich Brooks saved his job for about another week after pulling the upset against Mississippi State. MSU is a pretty terrible team though. Auburn isn't, and they're playing for a good bowl game. Sorry Rich, but after this Saturday, your job will be in jeopardy once again. Auburn by 27.
Saturday at 1:30 pm
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Wake Forest brings a halfway decent team to this matchup, but as unpredictable as the Yellow Jackets are at times, they are still 5-2. Besides, Wake is still a cellar dweller in the ACC, and has a ways to go before they can compete with the big boys. Reggie Ball and the Yellow Jackets will prove it. Georgia Tech by 17.
Tulane Green Wave at Navy Midshipmen
Navy has the usual strong running attack for this year, and Tulane is in complete and utter disarray (still) after Hurricane Katrina canceled the fall semester. So Tulane's football players don't have to worry about academics, but seeing the way that this team is playing, it doesn't seem like much of an advantage. Especially since they'll be traveling for this game. Navy by 13.
Saturday at 2:00 pm
Kansas State Wildcats at Iowa State Cyclones
Two more inconsistent Big 12 teams match up to see which one is worse. Iowa State, after choking themselves out of the Big 12 North title, has nothing left to play for. In other words, they'll be playing pretty good right now with nothing on the line. Iowa State by 10.
Buffalo Bulls at Miami (OH) Redhawks
Buffalo is still searching for its first win of the season. And they'll have to keep searching, because it isn't going to come against the Redhawks, especially at Oxford. Redhawks by 27.
Akron Zips at Ball State Cardinals
Ball State has prevented a winless season by pulling a couple of mind boggling upsets. Can they pull another? Yes, but odds are against it. Then again, they were against the first two. I still like Akron though. Akron by 17.
Bowling Green Falcons at Kent State Golden Flashes
Bowling Green is on a down year, but Kent State is struggling to just avoid a ten loss season. Unfortunately for the Golden Flashes, the odds are against them getting two wins this year. Bowling Green will come out and dominate easily. BGSU by 30.
Saturday at 2:30 pm
Tennessee Volunteers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Even though Notre Dame is overrated, and even though they haven't beaten anybody yet, it's not like Tennessee is really a tough team here. When you lose to South Carolina, you're screwed. Phil Fulmer, if you don't start getting your $h!t together, the fans will be calling for your head soon as well. Notre Dame by 17.
Saturday at 3:00 pm
Rice Owls at Southern Methodist Mustangs
Believe it. SMU is actually favored to win a game. And this is a game they had better win if Phil Bennett wants a job next year, even though his job is probably already in question. But anyways, Rice is winless, and they will stay that way. SMU by 10.
Brigham Young Cougars at UNLV Rebels
Brigham Young has gotten everything together lately, and they know exactly what they need to do to win games. UNLV doesn't know what they need to do to win games, because they haven't won nearly enough games to know what they have to do. Anyways, BYU by 14.
Wyoming Cowboys at Utah Utes
Both teams are at 4-4 and are fighting for a bowl berth, as the loser will probably be eliminated from going to a bowl game. Both teams have offenses that do enough to win, and defenses that do enough to avoid losing. Utah's offense is slightly better than Wyoming's, but Wyoming's defense is better at keeping points off the board than Utah's is. They say defense wins championships, but since neither team is playing for a championship, I'll just pick defense to win the game. Wyoming by 3.
Saturday at 3:05 pm
New Mexico State Aggies at Boise State Broncos
Boise State usually has a habit of playing down to their competition and pulling out a tight game when it comes to playing other WAC foes. However, New Mexico State is so bad that it would be nearly impossible for Boise State to play to their level. Boise State by 35.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Utah State Aggies
This is great for Louisiana Tech, as they get to play the second worst team in the WAC this week, even if it on the road. They'll beat Utah State almost as badly as Alabama did last week. Louisiana Tech by 27.
Saturday at 3:30 pm
Army Black Knights at Air Force Falcons
This is another huge rivalry game between the armed forces academies, but Army is playing at a level so far below Air Force and Navy that they might as well just give the Commander in Chief Trophy to Navy now instead of waiting for them to beat Army. Anyways, since Army does play at a level far below the other two, I must pick against them. Air Force by 21.
Missouri Tigers at Colorado Buffaloes
This game is for the right to go to the Big 12 championship game and get the snot beaten out of you by Texas. So play hard, young men! But really, as good as Brad Smith is, can he carry his team to victory against the best team in the Big 12 North, and probably the 4th best team in the conference? Chances are, probably not, especially at Boulder. So I'll take the Buffs by 13.
North Carolina State Wolfpack at Florida State Seminoles
Chuck Amato's job is uncertain, and Bobby Bowden is about to make matters worse. You can't lose to John Bunting two seasons in a row, and expect to hold onto to a coaching job at UNC's bitter rival for long. I'm sure Amato realizes this, and has his team fired up to try at pull an upset at FSU. Sorry Chuck. Florida State by 17.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Alabama will continue their undefeated season against this SEC cupcake that can't even hold serve against Houston at home. And Alabama is a much better team than Houston. However, they aren't much better than Houston at scoring points, so don't expect a total blowout. But still, Bama will win. Crimson Tide by 17.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State Buckeyes
Man, Ron Zook's new team has its work cut out for them going to Ohio State. Not to mention that they are considerably handicapped by having Ron Zook as a coach. Ohio State doesn't have that problem. Buckeyes by 35.
California Golden Bears at Oregon Ducks
Like it or not, as good as these two teams are, they are still playing for third place in the PAC 10. And another interesting development is that while Cal is playing with their third stringer, at least as of the beginning of the season, Oregon is just starting play with their second string QB. And that's going to hurt. Cal has experience playing with their backup, and they also have a ferocious running attack. That's why they can, and will, pull off the road win at Oregon. Cal by 3.
Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany Lions
Right now for Penn State, it's a two game season to get to a BCS bowl. Win at home against Wisconsin, and beat Michigan State at East Lansing, and they're there. This is the first of two tests to determine their BCS future. However, as good as Wisconsin is, they still aren't as good as Ohio State, and they would have shown had Wisconsin had Ohio State on the schedule. Penn State held serve against OSU at home, and they'll hold serve against the Badgers at home. PSU by 7.
Florida Atlantic Owls at Troy Trojans
Well, they did beat FIU at home, even if they did lose to Louisiana Lafayette. There is no way that Troy will win the Sun Belt at this point, or even get to a bowl game. They can take some solace into the offseason if they at least finish the season with a winning record. In order to do that, they must win this home game. And I think that the Trojans can beat FAU at home. So, I'll take Troy by 3.
Temple Owls at Virginia Cavaliers
I have no clue what the deal is with Temple playing all these big tough ACC teams when they are the crappiest team on the planet and trying to land a spot in the MAC. In order to land a spot in the MAC, they have to win. In other words, they should schedule some easier opponents. Try MTSU, or North Texas, or FIU, or somebody that they could possibly beat. Don't make yourself look bad by getting blown out by Miami and Virginia. Just get the wins. On the other hand, how much are the Owls getting for making complete fools of themselves? Virginia by 30.
Saturday at 4:00 pm (and 4:05 pm for the second game)
Florida International Golden Panthers at Louisiana Monroe Indians
Yes, Louisiana Monroe is on pace to win the Sun Belt and clinch a butt whooping in the New Orleans Bowl. Yes, even they can beat another crappy first year Sun Belt team at home. Yes, this is really happening. LA Monroe by 7.
Hawaii Warriors at Nevada Wolf Pack (4:05 pm)
Hawaii stinks. Nevada doesn't. The only way Hawaii managed to lose by only three points to Boise State is that Boise State often plays down to the level of their competition. Nevada, to the best of my knowledge, doesn't do that. So I'm taking the Wolf Pack by 17.
Saturday at 5:00 pm
Arkansas State Indians at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
The way MTSU is playing, I am highly tempted to pick against them. However, when they are playing at home, they seem to be able to win the games they should. And this is a game that they should win. So I'll take Middle Tennessee, but I would not be surprised by ASU pulling one over them. MTSU by 3.
Arizona State Sun Devils at Washington State Cougars
Well, ASU is having a very interesting season, especially since it has turned into a roller coaster. They lost two games close to two very good teams, but they've also lost to teams that they shouldn't have lost to, at least the way they were perceived at the time. However, right now, I have no illusions. Washington State by 6.
Saturday at 6:00 pm
UCLA Bruins at Arizona Wildcats
UCLA has an awesome offense, and a run defense that is totally atrocious. To make matters worse, they almost lost to Stanford, and needed a 21 point fourth quarter comeback and overtime to win. However, to their credit, Stanford is a better team than initially thought. Arizona, however, isn't. They are 2-6, but are right now riding on the waves of a major upset that they just pulled off last week at Oregon State. I can't see UCLA looking past this team, nor can I see Arizona pulling off another shocker. UCLA by 21.
Houston Cougars at UCF Golden Knights
This is definately the C-USA game of the week, or at least the one that demands the most attention. UCF is in a fight with Southern Miss for their division, but unfortunately for UCF, they need to win out and have Southern Miss lose a conference game to fight for the C-USA title. On the other hand, if nothing else, UCF can get an 8-3 season with a win on Saturday. And as bad as they were last year, I think they can do it this year. After all, there's nothing like playing at home. UCF by 3.
Saturday at 6:30 pm
Oregon State Beavers at Washington Huskies
Arizona did pull off a bit of a shocker last week, and this Oregon State team was the victim of it. For better or for worse, Oregon State lost at home by 2 to a team that, prior to playing the game, had one win on the season. In other words, Washington, another one win team, will be taken a lot more seriously leading up to this game. Oregon State is not going to look past anybody. That won't bode well with the Huskies. Oregon State by 17.
Saturday at 7:00 pm
Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at North Texas Mean Green
TAE is going to be considerably upset after this game. The once proud Mean Green, class of the Sun Belt conference, have already lost within the conference. And that was their only conference game at home so far this season. This team isn't very good, and I smell another 'upset' brewing. LA Lafayette by 3.
Colorado State Rams at TCU Horned Frogs
TCU has to be kicking itself now, because if it weren't for a lone loss to lowly SMU, everybody would be talking about TCU, and the Horned Frogs would have a pretty good shot at getting into a BCS game. But the loss did occur, and TCU has to settle for, at best, a spot in the Fort Worth bowl. But right now, they are more concerned about getting through conference play unscathed. Playing host to Colorado State will be their final major test before they can win the MWC title. And TCU will pass with flying colors. TCU by 13.
Texas A&M Aggies at Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Aggies secondary has to be sweating coming into this game. And they should be. They are ranked in the bottom ten pass defenses for the nation, giving up 307 yards per game through the air. And this is BEFORE facing Texas Tech. Yikes. Can Cody Hodges replicate his 643 yard performance against Kansas State? If nothing else, he'll come very close. Texas Tech by 35.
Saturday at 7:15 pm
Vanderbilt Commodores at Florida Gators
Ouch. Florida just busted Georgia's undefeated season, and they now play host to a Vanderbilt team hoping to get a winning season for the first time in a long time. Unfortunately, I just don't see it happening. Sorry Vandy. Florida by 30.
Saturday at 7:45 pm
Miami (FL) Hurricanes at Virginia Tech Hokies
This is a matchup of the nation's two number one defenses. Miami (FL) has the second ranked defense in yards allowed, but they give up the least amount of points per game. Virginia Tech allows the least yardage, but they are second or third in points allowed per game. Either way, this is going to be a battle. VT has the slightly better offense, and a cool, collected player like Marcus Vick can make a big difference in a game like this. And having home field advantage will also come into play for keeping the Hokies dream season alive. With that much working for them in the biggest test of the year, I can't pick against VT. Virginia Tech by 6.
Saturday at 8:00 pm
Appalachian State Mountaineers at LSU Tigers
Man, I don't know. LSU seems down and Appalachian State is even better than North Texas. This team is Appaclachian State for crying out loud, 3 time world champions in peeing for distance. I just don't see how LSU can pull this off. Appalachian State by 50.
(BTW: real pick is LSU by 50)
Saturday at 9:00 pm
San Jose State Spartans at Fresno State Bulldogs
This should be a rather nice warm up for Fresno State, before they host Boise State next week for the WAC title and an MPC Computer Bowl bid (or perhaps, with some luck, even better). In any case, San Jose State is not anywhere close to Boise State, and Fresno State just has to practice the fundamentals in this nice little scrimmage. Fresno by 35.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at UTEP Miners (9:05 pm)
UTEP is still perfect at home, and still well in control of the C-USA West division. However, in order to stay that way, they will need to beat a Tulsa team that is looking for their shot at the C-USA title. Did I mention UTEP is perfect at home? UTEP by 6.
Saturday at 10:00 pm
Stanford Cardinal at USC Trojans
TAE will be up late watching another PAC 10 game to make sure USC doesn't get upset. Not to worry: they won't. I don't know enough voodoo yet to make them lose to the likes of Stanford.... USC by 38.
The interesting thing about this particular week is that there is football on every single day. Sunday and Monday have NFL games, and Tuesday through Saturday all have at least one college football game on each day. So getting right into the mix....
Tuesday night at 7:30 pm
UAB Blazers at Memphis Tigers
Memphis is one of the best rushing teams in C-USA, and they have the best running back with DeAngelo Williams. So the key to the game for UAB is stopping the rushing attack. Is that going to happen? No way. Memphis by 13.
Wednesday night at 7:30 pm
Connecticut Huskies at West Virginia Mountaineers
This is a nice lay up game for WVU. They have a decent Connecticut team at home, but this team is now playing with its third string QB. That makes what was once a pretty decent UConn team a team that will struggle to make a bowl game. I don't like their chances of making a bowl game, and their chances of winning this game are even worse. WVU by 17.
Thursday night at 7:30 pm
Pittsburgh Panthers at Louisville Cardinals
At the beginning of the year, I, as well as many others, had this billed as the Big East title game and the only game Louisville could possibly lose. It turns out we were all wrong. Instead, this is a game between a Louisville team that never seems to win on the road versus a Pitt team that is nowhere near the preseason expectations. However, Louisville, despite all its road woes, is a completely different team at home, and scored over 60 points twice at home. That doesn't bode well for Pitt. Louisville by 27.
Friday night at 8:00 pm
Toledo Rockets at Ohio Bobcats
Toledo lost to CMU this past weekend, while Ohio handled a winless Buffalo team. So looking at it this way, there are two things that can happen. Toledo either A) comes out completely flat after losing a game it shouldn't have, and plays badly in a loss to Ohio, or B) realizes that they are still in the race for the MAC title if they win out and CMU loses a game. My selection for this is going to be B. Ohio's scoring defense is terrible, and they are 4-4 despite being outscored, on average, 30-20 every game. Toledo has a lot of offense, and is going to take advantage. Toledo by 17.
Saturday at noon
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Indiana Hoosiers
As much as I admire what Terry Hoeppner has done for Indiana, the schedule is still too tough for the Hoosiers to have a winning season, and this team still isn't quite good enough to compete with the upper mid tier Big Ten teams. So unfortunately, they won't get a win in this game, but they might be able to keep it close for a half before Laurence Maroney runs away with it. Minnesota by 20.
Boston College Eagles at North Carolina Tar Heels
As bad as Bunting needs 6 wins and a bowl to hold onto his job, he isn't going to get it. Boston College, Maryland, Duke, and a game at Virginia Tech isn't a nice schedule when you need 3 wins to get to a winning record. Sorry John, your job is likely a lost cause. Boston College has had nine days to prepare, and they are simply the better team. BC by 17.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats
Well, Northwestern is still a pretty decent team, and after a down week against Michigan, they'll come out ready to play against Iowa. Here's the problem though: Iowa has had two weeks to prepare for this game, while Northwestern hasn't. That can only mean one thing: As good as Northwestern is, they'll still probably lose. Iowa by 3.
Michigan State Spartans at Purdue Boilermakers
Michigan State is breathing a sigh of relief now. After losing three straight, they have a chance to get relatively easy back to back wins. They already got one of those against an Indiana team that isn't quite there yet. In part two of the relatively easy back to back wins, they travel to a Purdue squad that has greatly underachieved in comparision to this year's expectations, going 2-6 after being a sleeper pick for the BCS and Rose Bowl. This will be Michigan State's sixth win, with games at Minnesota and against Penn State left. That at least gets MSU six wins and a bowl, if nothing else. Michigan State by 17.
South Florida Bulls at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
This is actually a slight shocker. First off, Rutgers is favored by 2.5 points. Second, with the remaining schedule for Rutgers after this game simply being a road trip to Louisville and a home game against Cincinnati, this Rutgers squad has a pretty legit chance to be 8-3. South Florida, in the meantime, has played some tough opponents (Penn State and Miami), but also lost a game to Pitt. I don't like that. And even worse is that instead of having two weeks to prepare, they've had three weeks, which means South Florida is going to come out a big flat. They're also traveling on the road to Rutgers, which is sure to have some fired up football fans now that their team is actually (gasp!) winning. With so many things working against South Florida, I just can't pick them. So I'll take Rutgers by 3.
Saturday at 12:30 pm
South Carolina Gamecocks at Arkansas Razorbacks
Steve Spurrier has pulled off a bit of an upset by beating Tennessee at Neyland Stadium. Apparently while his offense hasn't quite found itself yet, his defense had enough to keep a struggling Tennessee squad from scoring too many points. And with a game at Arkansas, I'll pick the offensive mastermind to win yet another game- with his defense. South Carolina by 10.
Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears
This is nationally televised on Foxsports. You have got to be kidding me! Apparently FSN has decided it is their responsibility to trump up Texas and try to bail out the BCS so public perception won't turn against it when a more deserving Virginia Tech squad is hung out to dry. That's the only reason I can see for them putting a blowout of Baylor on national television. Texas by 45.
Saturday at 1:00 pm
Northern Illinois Huskies at Central Michigan Chippewas
Interestingly enough, CMU is 5-3, but their defense is giving up about 25 yards per game than their offense is getting, and their offense is outscoring the other team by only 0.3 points per game. However, with Western Michigan and Ball State left on the schedule, they have a decent shot to go 8-3. However, I still think CMU's win over Toledo was a fluke, and that CMU is also going to come out a smidgen flat after that highly emotional win over Toledo. In other words, NIU is going to ruin CMU's chances of an 8-3 season. Northern Illinois by 7.
Duke Blue Devils at Clemson Tigers
Duke is the ACC bottom feeder, and they are so bad that Wake Forest, the team next to the bottom in the ACC, blew them out. Duke has one win, and it's going to stay that way. Clemson by 30.
Western Michigan Broncos at Eastern Michigan Eagles
Western Michigan is another Michigan team that could go 8-3 if they beat the two other MAC Michigan teams and NIU. EMU is just playing for a winning season, and they'll need an upset here to pull it off. Unfortunately for them, a winning season just isn't in the cards. WMU by 10.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Kansas Jayhawks
The Huskers are traveling to the worst team in the Big 12 North, and looking for an easy win to pick them up a bit after a tough loss to Oklahoma. They'll find it here. Nebraska by 17.
Auburn Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats
Rich Brooks saved his job for about another week after pulling the upset against Mississippi State. MSU is a pretty terrible team though. Auburn isn't, and they're playing for a good bowl game. Sorry Rich, but after this Saturday, your job will be in jeopardy once again. Auburn by 27.
Saturday at 1:30 pm
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Wake Forest brings a halfway decent team to this matchup, but as unpredictable as the Yellow Jackets are at times, they are still 5-2. Besides, Wake is still a cellar dweller in the ACC, and has a ways to go before they can compete with the big boys. Reggie Ball and the Yellow Jackets will prove it. Georgia Tech by 17.
Tulane Green Wave at Navy Midshipmen
Navy has the usual strong running attack for this year, and Tulane is in complete and utter disarray (still) after Hurricane Katrina canceled the fall semester. So Tulane's football players don't have to worry about academics, but seeing the way that this team is playing, it doesn't seem like much of an advantage. Especially since they'll be traveling for this game. Navy by 13.
Saturday at 2:00 pm
Kansas State Wildcats at Iowa State Cyclones
Two more inconsistent Big 12 teams match up to see which one is worse. Iowa State, after choking themselves out of the Big 12 North title, has nothing left to play for. In other words, they'll be playing pretty good right now with nothing on the line. Iowa State by 10.
Buffalo Bulls at Miami (OH) Redhawks
Buffalo is still searching for its first win of the season. And they'll have to keep searching, because it isn't going to come against the Redhawks, especially at Oxford. Redhawks by 27.
Akron Zips at Ball State Cardinals
Ball State has prevented a winless season by pulling a couple of mind boggling upsets. Can they pull another? Yes, but odds are against it. Then again, they were against the first two. I still like Akron though. Akron by 17.
Bowling Green Falcons at Kent State Golden Flashes
Bowling Green is on a down year, but Kent State is struggling to just avoid a ten loss season. Unfortunately for the Golden Flashes, the odds are against them getting two wins this year. Bowling Green will come out and dominate easily. BGSU by 30.
Saturday at 2:30 pm
Tennessee Volunteers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Even though Notre Dame is overrated, and even though they haven't beaten anybody yet, it's not like Tennessee is really a tough team here. When you lose to South Carolina, you're screwed. Phil Fulmer, if you don't start getting your $h!t together, the fans will be calling for your head soon as well. Notre Dame by 17.
Saturday at 3:00 pm
Rice Owls at Southern Methodist Mustangs
Believe it. SMU is actually favored to win a game. And this is a game they had better win if Phil Bennett wants a job next year, even though his job is probably already in question. But anyways, Rice is winless, and they will stay that way. SMU by 10.
Brigham Young Cougars at UNLV Rebels
Brigham Young has gotten everything together lately, and they know exactly what they need to do to win games. UNLV doesn't know what they need to do to win games, because they haven't won nearly enough games to know what they have to do. Anyways, BYU by 14.
Wyoming Cowboys at Utah Utes
Both teams are at 4-4 and are fighting for a bowl berth, as the loser will probably be eliminated from going to a bowl game. Both teams have offenses that do enough to win, and defenses that do enough to avoid losing. Utah's offense is slightly better than Wyoming's, but Wyoming's defense is better at keeping points off the board than Utah's is. They say defense wins championships, but since neither team is playing for a championship, I'll just pick defense to win the game. Wyoming by 3.
Saturday at 3:05 pm
New Mexico State Aggies at Boise State Broncos
Boise State usually has a habit of playing down to their competition and pulling out a tight game when it comes to playing other WAC foes. However, New Mexico State is so bad that it would be nearly impossible for Boise State to play to their level. Boise State by 35.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Utah State Aggies
This is great for Louisiana Tech, as they get to play the second worst team in the WAC this week, even if it on the road. They'll beat Utah State almost as badly as Alabama did last week. Louisiana Tech by 27.
Saturday at 3:30 pm
Army Black Knights at Air Force Falcons
This is another huge rivalry game between the armed forces academies, but Army is playing at a level so far below Air Force and Navy that they might as well just give the Commander in Chief Trophy to Navy now instead of waiting for them to beat Army. Anyways, since Army does play at a level far below the other two, I must pick against them. Air Force by 21.
Missouri Tigers at Colorado Buffaloes
This game is for the right to go to the Big 12 championship game and get the snot beaten out of you by Texas. So play hard, young men! But really, as good as Brad Smith is, can he carry his team to victory against the best team in the Big 12 North, and probably the 4th best team in the conference? Chances are, probably not, especially at Boulder. So I'll take the Buffs by 13.
North Carolina State Wolfpack at Florida State Seminoles
Chuck Amato's job is uncertain, and Bobby Bowden is about to make matters worse. You can't lose to John Bunting two seasons in a row, and expect to hold onto to a coaching job at UNC's bitter rival for long. I'm sure Amato realizes this, and has his team fired up to try at pull an upset at FSU. Sorry Chuck. Florida State by 17.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Alabama will continue their undefeated season against this SEC cupcake that can't even hold serve against Houston at home. And Alabama is a much better team than Houston. However, they aren't much better than Houston at scoring points, so don't expect a total blowout. But still, Bama will win. Crimson Tide by 17.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State Buckeyes
Man, Ron Zook's new team has its work cut out for them going to Ohio State. Not to mention that they are considerably handicapped by having Ron Zook as a coach. Ohio State doesn't have that problem. Buckeyes by 35.
California Golden Bears at Oregon Ducks
Like it or not, as good as these two teams are, they are still playing for third place in the PAC 10. And another interesting development is that while Cal is playing with their third stringer, at least as of the beginning of the season, Oregon is just starting play with their second string QB. And that's going to hurt. Cal has experience playing with their backup, and they also have a ferocious running attack. That's why they can, and will, pull off the road win at Oregon. Cal by 3.
Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany Lions
Right now for Penn State, it's a two game season to get to a BCS bowl. Win at home against Wisconsin, and beat Michigan State at East Lansing, and they're there. This is the first of two tests to determine their BCS future. However, as good as Wisconsin is, they still aren't as good as Ohio State, and they would have shown had Wisconsin had Ohio State on the schedule. Penn State held serve against OSU at home, and they'll hold serve against the Badgers at home. PSU by 7.
Florida Atlantic Owls at Troy Trojans
Well, they did beat FIU at home, even if they did lose to Louisiana Lafayette. There is no way that Troy will win the Sun Belt at this point, or even get to a bowl game. They can take some solace into the offseason if they at least finish the season with a winning record. In order to do that, they must win this home game. And I think that the Trojans can beat FAU at home. So, I'll take Troy by 3.
Temple Owls at Virginia Cavaliers
I have no clue what the deal is with Temple playing all these big tough ACC teams when they are the crappiest team on the planet and trying to land a spot in the MAC. In order to land a spot in the MAC, they have to win. In other words, they should schedule some easier opponents. Try MTSU, or North Texas, or FIU, or somebody that they could possibly beat. Don't make yourself look bad by getting blown out by Miami and Virginia. Just get the wins. On the other hand, how much are the Owls getting for making complete fools of themselves? Virginia by 30.
Saturday at 4:00 pm (and 4:05 pm for the second game)
Florida International Golden Panthers at Louisiana Monroe Indians
Yes, Louisiana Monroe is on pace to win the Sun Belt and clinch a butt whooping in the New Orleans Bowl. Yes, even they can beat another crappy first year Sun Belt team at home. Yes, this is really happening. LA Monroe by 7.
Hawaii Warriors at Nevada Wolf Pack (4:05 pm)
Hawaii stinks. Nevada doesn't. The only way Hawaii managed to lose by only three points to Boise State is that Boise State often plays down to the level of their competition. Nevada, to the best of my knowledge, doesn't do that. So I'm taking the Wolf Pack by 17.
Saturday at 5:00 pm
Arkansas State Indians at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
The way MTSU is playing, I am highly tempted to pick against them. However, when they are playing at home, they seem to be able to win the games they should. And this is a game that they should win. So I'll take Middle Tennessee, but I would not be surprised by ASU pulling one over them. MTSU by 3.
Arizona State Sun Devils at Washington State Cougars
Well, ASU is having a very interesting season, especially since it has turned into a roller coaster. They lost two games close to two very good teams, but they've also lost to teams that they shouldn't have lost to, at least the way they were perceived at the time. However, right now, I have no illusions. Washington State by 6.
Saturday at 6:00 pm
UCLA Bruins at Arizona Wildcats
UCLA has an awesome offense, and a run defense that is totally atrocious. To make matters worse, they almost lost to Stanford, and needed a 21 point fourth quarter comeback and overtime to win. However, to their credit, Stanford is a better team than initially thought. Arizona, however, isn't. They are 2-6, but are right now riding on the waves of a major upset that they just pulled off last week at Oregon State. I can't see UCLA looking past this team, nor can I see Arizona pulling off another shocker. UCLA by 21.
Houston Cougars at UCF Golden Knights
This is definately the C-USA game of the week, or at least the one that demands the most attention. UCF is in a fight with Southern Miss for their division, but unfortunately for UCF, they need to win out and have Southern Miss lose a conference game to fight for the C-USA title. On the other hand, if nothing else, UCF can get an 8-3 season with a win on Saturday. And as bad as they were last year, I think they can do it this year. After all, there's nothing like playing at home. UCF by 3.
Saturday at 6:30 pm
Oregon State Beavers at Washington Huskies
Arizona did pull off a bit of a shocker last week, and this Oregon State team was the victim of it. For better or for worse, Oregon State lost at home by 2 to a team that, prior to playing the game, had one win on the season. In other words, Washington, another one win team, will be taken a lot more seriously leading up to this game. Oregon State is not going to look past anybody. That won't bode well with the Huskies. Oregon State by 17.
Saturday at 7:00 pm
Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns at North Texas Mean Green
TAE is going to be considerably upset after this game. The once proud Mean Green, class of the Sun Belt conference, have already lost within the conference. And that was their only conference game at home so far this season. This team isn't very good, and I smell another 'upset' brewing. LA Lafayette by 3.
Colorado State Rams at TCU Horned Frogs
TCU has to be kicking itself now, because if it weren't for a lone loss to lowly SMU, everybody would be talking about TCU, and the Horned Frogs would have a pretty good shot at getting into a BCS game. But the loss did occur, and TCU has to settle for, at best, a spot in the Fort Worth bowl. But right now, they are more concerned about getting through conference play unscathed. Playing host to Colorado State will be their final major test before they can win the MWC title. And TCU will pass with flying colors. TCU by 13.
Texas A&M Aggies at Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Aggies secondary has to be sweating coming into this game. And they should be. They are ranked in the bottom ten pass defenses for the nation, giving up 307 yards per game through the air. And this is BEFORE facing Texas Tech. Yikes. Can Cody Hodges replicate his 643 yard performance against Kansas State? If nothing else, he'll come very close. Texas Tech by 35.
Saturday at 7:15 pm
Vanderbilt Commodores at Florida Gators
Ouch. Florida just busted Georgia's undefeated season, and they now play host to a Vanderbilt team hoping to get a winning season for the first time in a long time. Unfortunately, I just don't see it happening. Sorry Vandy. Florida by 30.
Saturday at 7:45 pm
Miami (FL) Hurricanes at Virginia Tech Hokies
This is a matchup of the nation's two number one defenses. Miami (FL) has the second ranked defense in yards allowed, but they give up the least amount of points per game. Virginia Tech allows the least yardage, but they are second or third in points allowed per game. Either way, this is going to be a battle. VT has the slightly better offense, and a cool, collected player like Marcus Vick can make a big difference in a game like this. And having home field advantage will also come into play for keeping the Hokies dream season alive. With that much working for them in the biggest test of the year, I can't pick against VT. Virginia Tech by 6.
Saturday at 8:00 pm
Appalachian State Mountaineers at LSU Tigers
Man, I don't know. LSU seems down and Appalachian State is even better than North Texas. This team is Appaclachian State for crying out loud, 3 time world champions in peeing for distance. I just don't see how LSU can pull this off. Appalachian State by 50.
(BTW: real pick is LSU by 50)
Saturday at 9:00 pm
San Jose State Spartans at Fresno State Bulldogs
This should be a rather nice warm up for Fresno State, before they host Boise State next week for the WAC title and an MPC Computer Bowl bid (or perhaps, with some luck, even better). In any case, San Jose State is not anywhere close to Boise State, and Fresno State just has to practice the fundamentals in this nice little scrimmage. Fresno by 35.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at UTEP Miners (9:05 pm)
UTEP is still perfect at home, and still well in control of the C-USA West division. However, in order to stay that way, they will need to beat a Tulsa team that is looking for their shot at the C-USA title. Did I mention UTEP is perfect at home? UTEP by 6.
Saturday at 10:00 pm
Stanford Cardinal at USC Trojans
TAE will be up late watching another PAC 10 game to make sure USC doesn't get upset. Not to worry: they won't. I don't know enough voodoo yet to make them lose to the likes of Stanford.... USC by 38.
Last edited by fleaflicker on November 5th, 2005, 1:18 am, edited 4 times in total.
"To give anything less than the best is to sacrifice the gift." -Steve Prefontaine
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fleaflicker
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BTW, it seems that TAE has the seem weekday picks as I do. That makes things a little easier to calculate, I guess. But this mainly needs the bump so that I can work on my Saturday picks, as the entire schedule has been pretty much announced.
"To give anything less than the best is to sacrifice the gift." -Steve Prefontaine
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fleaflicker
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The four game lead remains after a four game week heading into Saturday. After UAB surprised Memphis, the rest of our picks for this week held serve (though my one manager is going to be disappointed that Toledo didn't cover the spread tonight). In any case, as it stands now, I am at 373-120 while TAE is at 369-124. But with 49 games to be played on Saturday, that four game lead could vanish in a hurry.....
"To give anything less than the best is to sacrifice the gift." -Steve Prefontaine
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fleaflicker
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The Ancient Enemy
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Re: Week 10 picks
I seriously didn't even have time. I got home at 3 am friday, was gone all day yesterday, and now I gotta fly back to Texas in like an hour.
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fleaflicker
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Ok, it happens. I'll count my score for this week, but Saturday won't count in the final standings. In other words, whatever my record is for this week won't count.
BTW, how was the game? I was happy to see Penn State get a 35-14 win over Wisconsin. That must have been something to be there in Happy Valley while PSU came one game closer to a BCS bowl game.
BTW, how was the game? I was happy to see Penn State get a 35-14 win over Wisconsin. That must have been something to be there in Happy Valley while PSU came one game closer to a BCS bowl game.
"To give anything less than the best is to sacrifice the gift." -Steve Prefontaine
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The Ancient Enemy
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Re: Week 10 picks
It was insane. The ATMOSPHERE was wonderful.