#3 Penn State vs. #22 Florida State
#3 Penn State vs. #22 Florida State
-ESPN.com-
Florida State's ability to consistently move the ball against a powerful Penn State defense will be the biggest key to the FedEx Orange Bowl.
Penn State Offense vs. Florida State Defense
Penn State offensive coordinator Galen Hall has done an excellent job with the increased freedom given to him by head coach Joe Paterno this season. Hall has adjusted the offensive scheme in order to play to the strengths of dual-threat QB Michael Robinson, while also maintaining good balance between run and pass. Robinson's ability to run on designed plays and to scramble for first downs after the initial passing play has broken down are two of the biggest reasons why Penn State's rushing attack is so dynamic. Furthermore, the Nittany Lions' offensive line is big and tough, and RB Tony Hunt is an aggressive north-south runner who will get upfield quickly and gain a lot of yards after initial contact.
FedEx Orange Bowl
vs.
Who: Penn State vs. Florida State
When: Jan. 3, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)
Where: Miami
While the Lions are far more effective running the ball, they do have big play capability through the air. Many times it is Robinson's ability to scramble and create second-chance passing opportunities that allows his receivers to break off their routes and get vertical. Robinson lacks ideal arm strength and accuracy, as his 51.8 completion percentage this season indicates. However, he has cut down significantly on the big mistakes that he made earlier in his career, while also providing more of a big-play element to the offense. Robinson clearly misses sensational freshman WR/RS Derrick Williams, who suffered a season-ending injury in the seventh game, but he still has reliable playmakers to spread the ball around to in WRs Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood, Terrell Golden, Justin King (WR/CB) and Ethan Kilmer, as well as TE Isaac Smolko.
If the Seminoles are to pull off the upset, their defense will need to lead the way. What makes this unit-vs.-unit matchup so intriguing is that it provides an opportunity to watch two strengths collide. Penn State's 13th ranked rushing attack will look to penetrate a Florida State run defense that ranks 18th in the nation. The 'Noles do not have great size up front, but they do have one of the more athletic defensive front four's in the country with DEs Kamerion Wimbley and Alex Boston and DTs Brodrick Bunkley and Andre Fluellen. This group is capable of penetrating and disrupting the PSU rushing attack when fresh, but its lack of size and lack of depth will cause it to wear down and become extremely ineffective if left on the field too long.
Wimbley, Florida State's best pass rusher, is expected to play despite a knee injury that required surgery and kept him out of the last two games. If he is able to perform at a high level, it will provide a huge boost to this defensive unit. With Wimbley, Bunkley, Fluellen and Boston providing front-four pressure, Robinson is could force a few throws into double coverage.
Few linebacker trios are as athletic as FSU's WLB A.J. Nicholson, MLB Buster Davis and SLB Ernie Sims. As long as these three have fresh legs and are being protected by their front four, Robinson and Hunt will struggle to find running room.
The Seminole secondary has been inconsistent with so many young and inexperienced cornerbacks learning on the job this season, but freshman LCB Tony Carter and sophomore RCB J.R. Bryant are athletic enough to keep Butler and Norwood under wraps when left alone on an island for a limited time. In order to fully capitalize on their athletic advantage on this side of the ball, playmaking safeties Pat Watkins and Kyler Hall, who have combined for six interceptions this season, must generate a couple of tide-turning takeaways while their front seven is still fresh and active.
Florida State Offense vs. Penn State Defense
As usual, Florida State has a good deal of talented skill players capable of providing big-play production every time they touch the ball. QB Drew Weatherford possesses good mobility and a strong arm, and he is surrounded by a deep corps of explosive natural athletes at the wide receiver position, including Chris Davis, Willie Reid, Greg Carr, De'Cody Fagg and Fred Rouse. However, inexperience at both of those positions has led to lots of growing pains in the passing game.
An injury-depleted and overall ineffective offensive line has only made matters worse. In fact, the offensive line play has been so bad that proven veteran RBs Leon Washington and Lorenzo Booker have combined for only 950 rushing yards in 12 games this season after teaming up for 1,838 rushing yards in as many games in 2004. Unless its line makes significant and unexpected improvements during the layoff, the Florida State offense will be in for a long night.
Penn State's versatility on defense allows it to defend the run just as well as they defend the pass while using the same personnel packages. LDE Tamba Hali has emerged as one of the nation's most relentless pass rushers. He has 11 sacks this season and leads a defensive line that consistently takes up space against the run and collapses the pocket in the passing game. FSU simply does not have the athletes or experience up front to generate a surge and seal off the second level in the running game, which means LBs Paul Posluszny, Tim Shaw and Dan Connor will have the room they need to roam from sideline-to-sideline. Posluszny is only a junior but he already has emerged as one of the elite defensive playmakers in college football, as seen in his 111 total tackles, 11 tackles for loss and three sacks.
Hali, RDE Matthew Rice and DT's Jay Alford and Scott Paxson have combined for 25.5 sacks this season and will be able to keep the pressure on Weatherford without help from the blitz. When Weatherford begins to throw the ball up for grabs, the Penn State secondary will be in position to capitalize. Justin King is another great freshman player on the PSU roster and he emerged as contributor in the nickel package. Otherwise, all four starting defensive backs for the Lions are seniors that will hear their names called in the 2006 NFL draft. Anwar Phillips and Alan Zemaitis are shutdown cover corners who have combined for 17 broken up passes and six interceptions this season. Chris Harrell and Calvin Lowry, on the other hand, make equally significant impacts against the run and pass, as they have combined for 159 tackles and five interceptions so far this season.
This is the one facet of the Orange Bowl that is lopsided in Penn State's favor.
Special Teams
Not much separates these two programs on special teams. Florida State has been solid in the kicking game. Kicker Gary Cismesia has had one kick blocked this season, but he has connecting on 16-of-21 field goals, including a long of 49 yards. Punter Chris Hall does not possess a huge leg and has a modest 38.6 yards per punt average. However, he has great accuracy and good cover units around him. Hall has pinned opponents inside their own 20-yard line on 19 of 65 tries, which is a big part of the reason why FSU ranks 16th in the nation in net punting.
The 'Noles lack explosiveness in the kickoff return game, where Kenny O'Neal is averaging just 22.7 yards per return with a long of 46 yards. But Reid is a weapon that the Nittany Lions must worry about in the punting game, as he is averaging 15 yards per return and has returned two for scores.
As good as the Seminoles have been in this facet, a slight edge needs to go to the Nittany Lions. For starters, kicker Kevin Kelly has been outstanding this season, connecting on 15-of-20 FGs with a long of 47 yards -- and two of those five misses were from 45 yards and beyond. The team as a whole ranks 24th nationally in net punting and punter Jeremy Kapinos is a reliable veteran with a solid 40.7 yard per attempt average.
PSU was expected to take a step back in the return game when it lost Williams to a season-ending injury, but Rodney Kinlaw has been even more explosive with a 34.8 yard average and a long of 77 yards. Calvin Lowry also does a fine job on punt returns, averaging 11.2 yards with a long of 43 yards.
Three Key Individual Matchups
1. Florida State ROT David Overmyer vs. Penn State LDE Tamba Hali
2. Penn State QB Michael Robinson vs. Florida State FS Pat Watkins
3. Penn State LOT Levi Brown vs. Florida State RDE Kamerion Wimbley
Scouts' Edge
Florida State is a worthy opponent in two of the three major components of this game. The 'Nole defense has the athletes up front to smother Robinson and Hunt on the ground, while also taking Robinson out of his rhythm as a passer. The Seminoles also stack up favorably on special teams, as their kicking game is solid and their return game is equally dangerous thanks to Reid's explosiveness. However, their inept offense -- more specifically the offensive line -- gives the 'Noles almost no chance of pulling off the upset in the Orange Bowl. The pressure generated by Hali and Posluszny will lead to forced throws from Weatherford -- and you can't throw too many up for grabs against a secondary of four seniors who will be playing on Sunday's a year from now.
FSU's defense will keep it close for a while, but eventually the undersized group will wear down and that's when PSU's dominant rushing attack will take over. Bowden will have his 'Noles ready to play but this will be JoePa's night -- and season.
Prediction: Penn State 28, Florida State 17
Florida State's ability to consistently move the ball against a powerful Penn State defense will be the biggest key to the FedEx Orange Bowl.
Penn State Offense vs. Florida State Defense
Penn State offensive coordinator Galen Hall has done an excellent job with the increased freedom given to him by head coach Joe Paterno this season. Hall has adjusted the offensive scheme in order to play to the strengths of dual-threat QB Michael Robinson, while also maintaining good balance between run and pass. Robinson's ability to run on designed plays and to scramble for first downs after the initial passing play has broken down are two of the biggest reasons why Penn State's rushing attack is so dynamic. Furthermore, the Nittany Lions' offensive line is big and tough, and RB Tony Hunt is an aggressive north-south runner who will get upfield quickly and gain a lot of yards after initial contact.
FedEx Orange Bowl
vs.
Who: Penn State vs. Florida State
When: Jan. 3, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)
Where: Miami
While the Lions are far more effective running the ball, they do have big play capability through the air. Many times it is Robinson's ability to scramble and create second-chance passing opportunities that allows his receivers to break off their routes and get vertical. Robinson lacks ideal arm strength and accuracy, as his 51.8 completion percentage this season indicates. However, he has cut down significantly on the big mistakes that he made earlier in his career, while also providing more of a big-play element to the offense. Robinson clearly misses sensational freshman WR/RS Derrick Williams, who suffered a season-ending injury in the seventh game, but he still has reliable playmakers to spread the ball around to in WRs Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood, Terrell Golden, Justin King (WR/CB) and Ethan Kilmer, as well as TE Isaac Smolko.
If the Seminoles are to pull off the upset, their defense will need to lead the way. What makes this unit-vs.-unit matchup so intriguing is that it provides an opportunity to watch two strengths collide. Penn State's 13th ranked rushing attack will look to penetrate a Florida State run defense that ranks 18th in the nation. The 'Noles do not have great size up front, but they do have one of the more athletic defensive front four's in the country with DEs Kamerion Wimbley and Alex Boston and DTs Brodrick Bunkley and Andre Fluellen. This group is capable of penetrating and disrupting the PSU rushing attack when fresh, but its lack of size and lack of depth will cause it to wear down and become extremely ineffective if left on the field too long.
Wimbley, Florida State's best pass rusher, is expected to play despite a knee injury that required surgery and kept him out of the last two games. If he is able to perform at a high level, it will provide a huge boost to this defensive unit. With Wimbley, Bunkley, Fluellen and Boston providing front-four pressure, Robinson is could force a few throws into double coverage.
Few linebacker trios are as athletic as FSU's WLB A.J. Nicholson, MLB Buster Davis and SLB Ernie Sims. As long as these three have fresh legs and are being protected by their front four, Robinson and Hunt will struggle to find running room.
The Seminole secondary has been inconsistent with so many young and inexperienced cornerbacks learning on the job this season, but freshman LCB Tony Carter and sophomore RCB J.R. Bryant are athletic enough to keep Butler and Norwood under wraps when left alone on an island for a limited time. In order to fully capitalize on their athletic advantage on this side of the ball, playmaking safeties Pat Watkins and Kyler Hall, who have combined for six interceptions this season, must generate a couple of tide-turning takeaways while their front seven is still fresh and active.
Florida State Offense vs. Penn State Defense
As usual, Florida State has a good deal of talented skill players capable of providing big-play production every time they touch the ball. QB Drew Weatherford possesses good mobility and a strong arm, and he is surrounded by a deep corps of explosive natural athletes at the wide receiver position, including Chris Davis, Willie Reid, Greg Carr, De'Cody Fagg and Fred Rouse. However, inexperience at both of those positions has led to lots of growing pains in the passing game.
An injury-depleted and overall ineffective offensive line has only made matters worse. In fact, the offensive line play has been so bad that proven veteran RBs Leon Washington and Lorenzo Booker have combined for only 950 rushing yards in 12 games this season after teaming up for 1,838 rushing yards in as many games in 2004. Unless its line makes significant and unexpected improvements during the layoff, the Florida State offense will be in for a long night.
Penn State's versatility on defense allows it to defend the run just as well as they defend the pass while using the same personnel packages. LDE Tamba Hali has emerged as one of the nation's most relentless pass rushers. He has 11 sacks this season and leads a defensive line that consistently takes up space against the run and collapses the pocket in the passing game. FSU simply does not have the athletes or experience up front to generate a surge and seal off the second level in the running game, which means LBs Paul Posluszny, Tim Shaw and Dan Connor will have the room they need to roam from sideline-to-sideline. Posluszny is only a junior but he already has emerged as one of the elite defensive playmakers in college football, as seen in his 111 total tackles, 11 tackles for loss and three sacks.
Hali, RDE Matthew Rice and DT's Jay Alford and Scott Paxson have combined for 25.5 sacks this season and will be able to keep the pressure on Weatherford without help from the blitz. When Weatherford begins to throw the ball up for grabs, the Penn State secondary will be in position to capitalize. Justin King is another great freshman player on the PSU roster and he emerged as contributor in the nickel package. Otherwise, all four starting defensive backs for the Lions are seniors that will hear their names called in the 2006 NFL draft. Anwar Phillips and Alan Zemaitis are shutdown cover corners who have combined for 17 broken up passes and six interceptions this season. Chris Harrell and Calvin Lowry, on the other hand, make equally significant impacts against the run and pass, as they have combined for 159 tackles and five interceptions so far this season.
This is the one facet of the Orange Bowl that is lopsided in Penn State's favor.
Special Teams
Not much separates these two programs on special teams. Florida State has been solid in the kicking game. Kicker Gary Cismesia has had one kick blocked this season, but he has connecting on 16-of-21 field goals, including a long of 49 yards. Punter Chris Hall does not possess a huge leg and has a modest 38.6 yards per punt average. However, he has great accuracy and good cover units around him. Hall has pinned opponents inside their own 20-yard line on 19 of 65 tries, which is a big part of the reason why FSU ranks 16th in the nation in net punting.
The 'Noles lack explosiveness in the kickoff return game, where Kenny O'Neal is averaging just 22.7 yards per return with a long of 46 yards. But Reid is a weapon that the Nittany Lions must worry about in the punting game, as he is averaging 15 yards per return and has returned two for scores.
As good as the Seminoles have been in this facet, a slight edge needs to go to the Nittany Lions. For starters, kicker Kevin Kelly has been outstanding this season, connecting on 15-of-20 FGs with a long of 47 yards -- and two of those five misses were from 45 yards and beyond. The team as a whole ranks 24th nationally in net punting and punter Jeremy Kapinos is a reliable veteran with a solid 40.7 yard per attempt average.
PSU was expected to take a step back in the return game when it lost Williams to a season-ending injury, but Rodney Kinlaw has been even more explosive with a 34.8 yard average and a long of 77 yards. Calvin Lowry also does a fine job on punt returns, averaging 11.2 yards with a long of 43 yards.
Three Key Individual Matchups
1. Florida State ROT David Overmyer vs. Penn State LDE Tamba Hali
2. Penn State QB Michael Robinson vs. Florida State FS Pat Watkins
3. Penn State LOT Levi Brown vs. Florida State RDE Kamerion Wimbley
Scouts' Edge
Florida State is a worthy opponent in two of the three major components of this game. The 'Nole defense has the athletes up front to smother Robinson and Hunt on the ground, while also taking Robinson out of his rhythm as a passer. The Seminoles also stack up favorably on special teams, as their kicking game is solid and their return game is equally dangerous thanks to Reid's explosiveness. However, their inept offense -- more specifically the offensive line -- gives the 'Noles almost no chance of pulling off the upset in the Orange Bowl. The pressure generated by Hali and Posluszny will lead to forced throws from Weatherford -- and you can't throw too many up for grabs against a secondary of four seniors who will be playing on Sunday's a year from now.
FSU's defense will keep it close for a while, but eventually the undersized group will wear down and that's when PSU's dominant rushing attack will take over. Bowden will have his 'Noles ready to play but this will be JoePa's night -- and season.
Prediction: Penn State 28, Florida State 17
Last edited by ham55 on September 20th, 2011, 12:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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count2infinity
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i agree as well...and oddly enough that's the exact score that i had in mind...
Last edited by count2infinity on September 20th, 2011, 12:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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HOLLYWOOD
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Re: #3 Penn State vs. #22 Florida State
Go NOLES!!
Last edited by HOLLYWOOD on September 20th, 2011, 12:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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retro1530
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Re: #3 Penn State vs. #22 Florida State
penn state wins 28-7 because i'm not sold on bowden's noles
Last edited by retro1530 on September 20th, 2011, 12:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: #3 Penn State vs. #22 Florida State
FSU starting LB and leading tackler not to play in the OB. Accused of rape and violating a team policy.
http://www.centredaily.com/mld/centreda ... 508382.htm
http://www.centredaily.com/mld/centreda ... 508382.htm
Last edited by frostlion on September 20th, 2011, 12:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: #3 Penn State vs. #22 Florida State
There are some coaches I know of who, when a player gets in big trouble before a bowl game, will pooh-pooh it and still let them play. You know, kind of sort things out after the game is over. Give credit to Bowden, who sent the kid back home and suspended him for the bowl game. This is a coach with guts and principles.
Last edited by El-Moldo on September 20th, 2011, 12:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: #3 Penn State vs. #22 Florida State
I'd say that sending your star player home shows principles. Paterno lets them play, then discusses it later.
Last edited by El-Moldo on September 20th, 2011, 12:28 am, edited 1 time in total.