D5-A Playoffs taking shape...or are they? Scenarios!

[Coach]

Well I'm interested in this and figured I'd post what I was looking at regarding the playoff field. Here goes...

1. NBC (7-1)- No matter what happens in any scenario NBC has this spot locked up.

From here it is very cluttered.

2-5 Tussey Mtn (6-2)- If they beat Ridge no matter what happens they get this spot. They have an AA win so no matter what happens they can't go any lower than 5.

2-3 Windber (6-2)- Windber has Ferndale and should win to get 7-2...this all assumes they win. If Tussey wins, then Winber is 3. If Tussey loses then Windber is 2.

3-5 Meyersdale (5-2)- Meyersdale has Portage. That is a tossup game I think with Portage being a slight favorite. Windber has a tiebreaker over Meyersdale so Mey can NOT get above 3 (well they could...but it won't happen) and will play in the first round of the playoffs. They have an edge on a tiebreaker over Twp so they can't go all the way to the 6 seed either.

3-5 North Star (5-2)- They had a bye week so they have one less game on their record. They smashed Blacklick today and should beat Shade next week. If that happens they finish 6-2 and most likely host a first round game.

5-6 Con Twp (5-3)- They have Rockwood in the final week. A Rockwood win puts them in the playoffs as well mixing things up a bit. I'm going to say that CT beats them to get to 6-3 for all these scenarios. Since Windber probably won't lose CT can't use their tiebreaker over them. They lost to Meyersdale so they don't win a tiebreaker with them if that comes into play.


So...scenarios- I will post the most likely ones.

Scenario 1:
NS beats Shade
Windber beats Ferndale
CT beats Rockwood
I will keep those 3 games the same in all scenarios as they are the most likely to happen.

TM beats CR
Portage beats Meyersdale

1. NB
2. TM
3. Windber
4. North Star
5. CT
6. Meyersdale


Scenario 2:
NS beats Shade
Windber beats Ferndale
CT beats Rockwood
TM loses to Chestnut Ridge
Meyersdale beats Portage

1. NB
2. Windber
3. Meyersdale
4. NS
5. TM
6. C. Twp

Scenario 3:
NS beats Shade
Windber beats Ferndale
CT beats Rockwood
TM loses to CR
Mey loses to Portage

1. NBC
2. Windber
3. NS
4. TM
5. CTwp
6. Mey


Scenario 4:
NS beats Shade
Windber beats Ferndale
CT beats Rockwood
TM beats CR
Mey beats Portage

1. NB
2. TM
3. Windber
4. Meyersdale
5. NS
6. C. Twp


Now after all that....I'm not sure which is the most likely to happen. I'd say that Mey and TM are both underdogs going into this week so scenario 3 is probably the most likely one percentage-wise to happen. If picking a winner between 1 of those 2 teams...I'd say Meyersdale has a slightly better chance than TM to win, but TM can do a lot of things with Donaldson. Anyway...I'm going to say scenario 2 is the second most likely to happen.



Anyway...this is pretty stinkin exciting this year. All 6 teams are good enough to win it and many seem to be playing really well right now.



Thanks for the heads up Sneakers. I made the change you brought up.

[Sneakers]

Good job Coach...except...
Meyersdale is also in the situation of having one less game so they are 5-2 right now.So in the two scenarios you have Mey losing, CT gets the higher spot than they do.

[once a runner]

I have a question about the rankings. Do the WestPAC teams that lost a scheduled game to Turkeyfoot due to their late co-op with Rockwood receive a forfeit win for that game? I know Twp. was able to find a replacement game, but most schools could not get a replacement game. I know their was talk about giving these schools a forfeit win, but I'm not sure if they actually did. It would surely affect the rankings. Also, wouldn't a forfeit give Rockwood 4 wins and put them in the playoffs? That would certainly affect the #2 seed having to play an extra game.

[Head Roadie]

District 5's rating system, which is consistent for all sports unlike our neighbors to the north, divides points accumulated by games played. Their are no forfeit wins for someone not on your schedule. All the schools could have got a game, the WPIAL had a similar scenario with Duquesne's school closing and that is how CV and CT got games. Also, there would have been other opportunites, particularly to the south in Maryland and W.Virginia if they had chosen to look and play. I know Shade had two opportunities but they were both against much larger schools and opted for the bye.

Current Ratings with one week remaining:

A DISTRICT FIVE FOOTBALL RATINGS
RANK TEAM WON LOST POINTS RATING

1 Northern Bedford 7 1 37 4.625
2 Tussey Mountain 6 2 31 3.875
3 Windber 6 2 30 3.750
4 Meyersdale 5 2 25 3.571
North Star 5 2 25 3.571
6 Conemaugh Twp 5 3 25 3.125
7 Rockwood 3 4 15 2.143
8 Berlin 2 6 10 1.250
9 Shade 1 6 5 0.714