Missouri talk heating up.

[The Ancient Enemy]

Even adding 1 team, the dominoes will fall.

Missouri...

Big XII needs another school. Do they add TCU (DFW market which is untapped by BCS conferences) and rotate Oklahoma State north? TCU fans are very optimistic. Another scenario is that Arkansas is added. Arkansas is an old SWC component that wants to get back into the rotation w/ Texas and A&M, etc. Then what??? SEC adds WVU? They'd leave the BE in a matter of seconds for the SEC. What about South Florida? Their closest conference rival is now Rutgers or Pitt!!!! Another possibility is to add Colorado State to the North. Some think CSU is a better fit than TCU. Then you have SMU, which is in the DFW market, HUGE base of wealthy donors. The Arkansas scenario is a big possibility.

Rutgers / Pitt...

Now the BE goes back to 7. That's just not going to fly when they have an auto bid versus conferences with 5 more members than them. The BE loses Pitt or Rutgers, you might as well hire Firehouse to play at a ceremony, because that's "All She Wrote" for the Big East. There is no chance in Hell the Big East survives losing Pittsburgh or Rutgers when their academics are already shoddy as a complete conference. Who do they add? I personally say they need to take Ol TAE's advice and add 5 schools and play a conference title game. North and South. There's plenty of schools who have stuff to offer, but that BCS bid is going to be in serious, serious jeopardy. What does Syracuse do if Pitt and/or Rutgers leave? Syracuse has turned down the ACC TWICE! UCONN as well, what do they do? They are in the middle of Siberia with only 1 million households in their regional base. Smell the incentive for a conference to add UCONN.

Then consider this... why is BC staying in the ACC? Their closest rival is Maryland! Why is Maryland staying? Maryland is unhappy there. They could really help the Big East or Big Ten, have a big undergrad, great academics, just upgraded their facilities...

The point is... ONE school leaving the Big East will cause a nice ripple effect. Even if only 1 school leaves the Big East, there is probably a 90% chance that C-USA is losing someone to the Big East. That means C-USA MUST add another school in order to play a conference championship game, by NCAA regulations. They cannot afford to lose their conference title money. That's why they went to 12 to begin with! So who is it??? Troy?

ACC loses ONE school they snag South Florida. No brainer, IMO.

Will be very, very, very interesting.

What I am hoping is that the B10 goes to 14, this causes mass hysteria, and all the conferences go to 14. That's 6 division games, 3 inter-division, and 3 Coastal Carolina's. Give the Cotton Bowl the BCS status they want and deserve (seriously, fellas, there is absolutely no doubt this happens now that they are in Cowboys Stadium), and add 2 more at-large bids.

It would be nice if these universities would all crack down academically to increase their market value, but that's a pipe dream.

[Head Roadie]

Good insight AE and certainly more possibilities you present, most very viable options.....It all depends how the puzzle gets filled in when people lose schools as to the overall and final ripple affect.

I think TCU is a no-brainer for the Big 12 if they are in need....only way CSU has a shot is if they lose two teams (only possible if PAC-10 raids them in addition to the possibility of Missouri going to the B10).

Other thing I just don't see is Arkansas going back to the Big 12. Not that they were ever in it but they were a strong member of the SWC and they turned their back on those people to head to the SEC once upon a time. That wasn't that long ago that the Texas schools won't remember.

A point to make on Syracuse.....they only turned down the ACC once as I recall unless their were two invites within months. My recollection is that the Virginia governor threw a fit anyway and bullied Va. Tech into the mix when the original offers the ACC tendered were to Miami, BC, and Syracuse.

Certainly fun stuff to talk about and speculate.....It may be years till we see exactly what scenario plays out.

[southpaw]

Amazing insight guys. Keep up the healthy speculation.

[The Ancient Enemy]

Just thought of something else. (I know, I am borderline obsessed with this stuff, but hear me out).

I dont think any of us would argue that the BCS universities are trying their best to stay on top. They dont like it when Boise beats OU, and they certainly dont like it when Utah destroys Alabama. Is there any more evidence needed than this year's Fiesta Bowl matchup, where they shoved those teams into their own corner and essentially told them to go have their little game and shut up?

A way to keep out the riff-raff might be to go to 14 university or 16 university conferences. Think about it. Is there ANY chance in hell that New Mexico State gets an at-large bid over a BCS team in this system? They could all expand, accept TCU and Boise and Houston and whoever else into the BCS conferences, and shut the door on schools who they feel REALLY have "no business competing with us".

Might be a way to still get what you want. Those at-large bids will ALL go to BCS schools. There will be no Louisiana Monroe's touching any of that money.

The thing is... there's non-BCS schools who have things they can offer the BCS conferences. But there aren't 50 of them. There are, however, probably 15-20 that HAVE good academics and CAN conceivably become promising additions to established conferences.

This is gonna be total chaos. If the Big Ten gets enough interest from 3 schools, why stop at 1?

[abpk2903]

I was going to get onto the same topic you just discussed, TAE. BCS conferences are about 1 thing and that is money. IMO, 12 teams can make more money than 10, 14 can make more money than 12, and 16 can make more money than 14 (there aren't enough high revenue producing schools to go more than 16 per conference, IMO). So I really see the landscape of conference layouts changing in the upcoming decade.

Here are some idea's that I can see happening:
-Big 12 moving south and leaving schools like Iowa State, Nebraska, Colorado, and Missouri looking at joining a conference like the Big 10 or possibly Pac 10.
-Big East falling apart in football with the meaningful programs moving to the Big 10, ACC, and SEC.
-PAC 10 moving towards 12 or even 14 adding maybe Utah or BYU. Fresno State and Boise are other possibilities but academically this all doesn't work.
-Big 10 eventually getting to 14 or even 16 teams.

Some non-BCS schools that potentially could fit into BCS conferences (IMO) are:
-Central Florida- huge enrollment and new on campus stadium
-Navy- they can play and academics aren't an issue
-Tulsa- one of the bigger schools in Oklahoma
-North Texas- have had success recently and a big enrollment
-Temple- add the recent success with a huge Philly market and a decent enrollment and academics
-Buffalo- we'll see what they do with a new coach but have spent some money on facilities
-SMU- starting to have some success again
-BYU- they are a national champion and are still having success
-Colorado State- spent a week on campus there once and they have some decent facilities
-Villanova- Just won a FCS championship and have awesome basketball plus the Philly market
-ECU- seem to be becoming a CUSA power
-Boise State- Academics are gonna be the issue here though
-Utah- They have to look appealing to BCS conferences
-TCU- I would say they might be the best candidate
-Air Force- This may be a stretch but they did have some great teams not to long ago
-Army- They need to get better athletically but they are worth putting on this list
-Marshall- They may have a shot at the Big East if a bunch of things work out right

I think Notre Dame will continue to be the stuck up, stubborn program that slowly fades away into a meaningless football program. Seriously, what is their deal?

[The Ancient Enemy]

Might as well have some fun while work in slow.

Big Ten goes to 14.

Big Ten:
==========
1. Wisconsin
2. Minnesota
3. Iowa
4. Northwestern
5. Michigan State
6. Michigan
7. Missouri
8. Indiana
9. Purdue
10. Illinois
11. Penn State
12. Ohio State
13. Pittsburgh
14. Rutgers


Big East

1. Cincinnati
2. UCONN
3. Louisville
4. So Florida
5. Syracuse
6. ECU
7. So Miss
8. Cen Florida
9. Memphis
10. Marshall
11. Navy
12. Troy

ACC stays intact.

Big 12:
1. Baylor
2. Colorado
3. Iowa State
4. Kansas
5. K-State
6. Nebraska
7. Oklahoma
8. Okee State
9. Texas
10. Texas A&M
11. Texas Tech
12. Arkansas

SEC:
1. Alabama
2. Auburn
3. Florida
4. Georgia
5. Kentucky
6. LSU
7. Ole Miss
8. Miss State
9. So Carolina
10. Tennessee
11. Vanderbilt
12. West Virginia

Now the insanity begins. This gave me the biggest ice cream headache and made me insane.

C-USA:
1. Houston
2. Rice
3. SMU
4. North Texas?
5. La Tech
6. Middle Tennessee
7. Tulane
8. Tulsa
9. UAB
10. UTEP
11. Ark St
12. FIU

I completely gave up after that.

North Texas is in a spot. Big enrollment, reasonably wealthy, better facilities but stadium is a relative dump. Plans for new stadium were scratched recently. It seems like their upward mobility is maybe limited. TCU is int he Mtn West, and SMU in C-USA. Why would either conference want another team in that market? Who knows.

C-USA, BE, WAC, Mtn West, and Sun Belt are all in jeopardy. Are there enough teams to even go around? What happens to WKU who just joined I-A? What about Texas State, who approved the move to I-A last year?

If the Pac-10 goes to 12 or 14 who is it? UNLV, Utah, BYU, Boise? Colorado? New Mexico?

A whole of teams can get screwed royally. Hawaii?

[The Ancient Enemy]

Keeping a very close eye on the Chicago Tribune.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/co ... ory?page=2

The latest and greatest reason for the Big Ten to expand from 11? The number 18.

That's how many millions of people watched CBS' coverage of the Dec. 5 SEC title game. The exact figure of 17.969 million gave CBS the most-viewed college football telecast this season. By far.

ABC earned the silver medal for its coverage of the Big 12 title game, even though it was only slightly more exciting (until the end) than your average Lovie Smith news conference. Nearly 12.7 million tuned in for that one.

Rest assured, Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany already knows these numbers by heart.

He also knows both CBS and ESPN just earned their highest season-long college football ratings in at least 10 years.

Heck, he might even know 84 percent of those responding to an unscientific question at chicagotribune.com said they would like to see the Big Ten become the big dozen.

In short, the public's appetite for college football never has been greater. And the Big Ten seems poised to offer dessert, in the form of a conference title game.

But first the Big Ten would have to expand. Although we're at least a year away from the horse race, let's handicap some possible entries -- from the Big Ten's perspective:

Missouri

Undergraduate enrollment: 23,042.

Average SAT scores: 1,080-1,310.★

U.S. News ranking: 102.★★

Why the Tigers: Solid football and basketball programs, a "Braggin' Rights" rivalry with Illinois, geographically friendly campus, access to St. Louis and Kansas City markets, top-notch journalism school that has produced ESPN's Pat Forde and the Big Ten Network's Mike Hall. (Hey, good PR never hurt.)

Why not the Tigers: So-so football stadium that seats 71,004 but rarely sells out, a perceived lack of buzz for the program.

Bottom line: The blog Mizzou2bigten.com sees a perfect fit. Missouri would get richer through Big Ten revenue sharing and boost its TV presence via the Big Ten Network.


Pittsburgh

Undergraduate enrollment: 17,427.

Average SAT scores: 1,160-1,360.

U.S. News ranking: 56.

Why the Panthers: Strong football program with rich history, home games at Steelers' Heinz Field, a U.S. News ranking that's higher than five current Big Ten schools, geographically friendly, solid TV market (23rd), powerful basketball program and, hey, it's Da Coach's alma mater.

Why not the Panthers: Some smallish crowds at Heinz Field. A low Director's Cup ranking of 93rd in 2008-09 that reflects weakness in the overall athletic program. Penn State might balk out of fear it actually might have to play Pittsburgh.

Bottom line: A lot of pluses here, but the Big Ten would not be able to expand its recruiting base.

Rutgers

Undergraduate enrollment: 28,031.

Average SAT scores: 1,090-1,310.

U.S. News ranking: 66.

Why the Scarlet Knights: Access to the nation's largest TV market, solid academics (ranks above Indiana, Michigan State and Iowa in recent U.S. News list), a football program on a solid five-year run, a newly renovated (for $102 million) stadium, the East Coast recruiting base, the muscle of First Fan James Gandolfini (aka Tony Soprano).

Why not the Scarlet Knights: Long trips from western schools such as Iowa and Minnesota. Until recently, Rutgers football was a joke.

Bottom line: Here's guessing Big Ten schools would rather fly into Newark, N.J., than State College, Pa. And Rutgers would love to make the leap to the Big Ten because of the Big East's crummy bowl tie-ins (last four years, including 2009): Texas, International, Papajohns.com and St. Petersburg.

Syracuse

Undergraduate enrollment: 13,651.

Average SAT scores: 1,070-1,270.

U.S. News ranking: 58.

Why the Orange: Top-notch basketball, a football legacy of Ernie Davis and Jim Brown, a superb communications school with alumni such as Bob Costas and Fox Sports President Ed Goren.

Why not the Orange: Tiny TV market (83rd) and so-so-football program that plays in the rundown (and not air-conditioned) Carrier Dome.

Bottom line: The 'Cuse fits the profile, but who, exactly, longs to take winter trips to central New York?

Notre Dame

Undergraduate enrollment: 8,363.

Average SAT scores: 1,320-1,500.

U.S. News ranking: 20.

Why the Irish: Touchdown Jesus, seven Heisman Trophy winners, a packed house on Saturdays, a famous name, superb academics and excellence in the Olympic sports. And ideal geography for travel.

Why not the Irish: Now that Charlie Weis is gone, it's hard to think of a reason. Oh, yeah. Because the Irish dissed the Big Ten in 1999. Joe Paterno's feelings were hurt. And he's not alone.

Bottom line: The Irish already have their own network and the power to please alumni and recruits by playing in Los Angeles, Boston, New York and Orlando. Why would they give that up? They've already said they won't.