Light at the End of Tunnel for ACC.

[The Ancient Enemy]

Light at the End of the Tunnel for ACC

Everybody just kind of looked around and asked, "What the hell just happened?"

Without question, the ACC has been the conference this season that has become the brunt of all the jokes. And, without question, they deserve every bit of it. Halfway through the season, unless about 75 teams in other conferences all lose twice, the ACC has no chance of getting a bid in the national title game. To date, the conference frontrunners really don't look much better than the teams at the bottom. It should not be this bad. It never used to be this bad. And in the future... well, we can hope, right?

It's like Cheap Trick once said: "Everything will work out if you let it."

It is almost like a conference-wide rebuilding effort. For all the laughter and all the losses, the ACC has hope. No, I'm serious. There's reason for the ACC to be optimistic... for the future.

Let's take a closer look at the ACC, team by team, over the past couple of seasons. I also think it is important to take a look at their individual recruiting classes. Now, as we all know (and I am sure this goes without saying, for most of you) these recruiting rankings do not necessarily translate into winning seasons. As you will see, for example, Wake Forest has done a remarkable job with reruiting classes ranked in the 60's. But the kids in the 2005 recruiting classes are the current seniors at the universities.


MARYLAND:
============
Ralph Friedgen is currently in his 8th season as the Terps' general, and heading into this year has a record of 56-31. Heralded as an offensive genius, there's no question that Maryland has made a lot of headway under his watch. What has hurt Maryland, and Virginia, was the expansion. Before BC and V-Tech and Miami jumped-ship from the Big East, these two programs were making a lot of inroads towards the top of the conference. Expansion stunted the growth of both programs. Still though, Maryland has remained consistent. That is, consistently inconsistent. They are one of the top programs on the "Do Not Bet On or Against" list. So far this season, Maryland has a 4-2 record, with nice wins over California and Clemson... and a loss to Middle Tennessee State. Maybe a little more game-prep and a few less Under Armor commercials, Coach.

Last 3 Seasons:
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2007: 6-7 bowl loss to Oregon State
2006: 9-4 bowl win over Purdue
2005: 5-6

Class Rankings:
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2005: 25th
2006: 27th
2007: 48th
2008: 52nd

Diagnosis: Not sold on Friedgen as a head coach, but Maryland has a new offensive coordinator and a new recruiting coordinator. The latter has already done a nice job. My verdict is to reconvene court at a later date.


MIAMI:
=========
The rebuild is on in Miami under 2nd year head coach Randy Shannon, who went 5-7 in his first campaign. When Shannon took over before the 2007 season, the cupboard was relatively bare for him. It wasn't necessarily bare in general standards, but it was bare by Miami standards. Shannon has done an amazing job of getting the players on the roster to turn this program back into a national contender. It is a change in mentality. There's no question he will get this ship turned around, and will be aided by playing in a conference that is lacking heavyweight depth. He is also aided by the cult mentality of The U, with NFL stars, past and present, doing their own little things to get this program back on track. The Canes are currently 2-3 in 2008, with 2 of those losses (Florida State and North Carolina) by a small margin. They are young and inexperienced. But they also have a ton of gamebreakers that will wreak havoc for years to come.

Last 3 Seasons:
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2007: 5-7
2006: 7-6 (Larry Coker) bowl win over Nevada
2005: 9-3 (Larry Coker) bowl loss to LSU

Class Rankings:
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2005: 12th (Larry Coker)
2006: 14th (Larry Coker)
2007: 13th
2008: 3rd

Diagnosis: Already playing better than most thought. Should be ready for a conference challenge in a year or so.


NORTH CAROLINA STATE:
======================
A lot of people, myself included, scratched their heads when O'Brien left Boston College to take over at NC State. Clearly it was a lateral move, if not a move backwards. NC State was mired with inconsistency under Chuck Amato, despite how cool he and Corey Hart look wearing their sunglasses at night. The only problem is, despite the fact that he did well at BC, Tom O'Brien is just as inconsistent. His BC teams were always ready to spoil someone's dinner, but would then lose to someone clearly less talented. O'Brien is a North Carolina guy who had the chance to go back home, and he took it. Hard to argue with that. This is O'Brien's 2nd year in Raleigh, going 5-7 in 2007. So far this year, the Wolfpack are 2-3 with an overtime win over East Carolina, a team that knocked off both V-Tech and West Virginia. They have also, however, posted 2 blowout losses, one to South Carolina and one to South Florida.

Last 3 Seasons:
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2007: 5-7
2006: 3-9 (Chuck Amato)
2005: 7-5 (Chuck Amato) bowl win over South Florida

Class Rankings:
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2005: 23rd (Chuck Amato)
2006: 42nd (Chuck Amato)
2007: 60th
2008: 29th

Diagnosis: O'Brien will win games at NC State but he needs time to get his players. He'll get the Wolfpack to at least where he had BC: 9-3, maybe 10-2 once in awhile.


VIRGINIA TECH:
===============
Speaking of hard to argue, it is hard to argue that this program has dropped off a bit. Although clearly not as tough as they used to be, V-Tech continues to post impressive records. Frank Beemer has done a great job at V-Tech, and a great job keeping them in everyone's minds. This is Beemer's 22nd year in scenic Blacksburg, and prior to 2008, has a record of 167-85-2. Last year, the Hokies won the ACC before losing in the bowl game to an upstart Kansas. This year, V-Tech is 4-1 with nice, gritty wins over Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and on the road against Nebraska. They do however have one loss, to an East Carolina team who played well enough against the Hokies that they never should have needed to block a kick to win the game. After removing Taylor's redshirt and benching interception-master Glennon, Tech is poised to win this conference again.

Last 3 Seasons:
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2007: 11-3 bowl loss to Kansas
2006: 10-3 bowl loss to Georgia
2005: 11-2 bowl win over Louisville

Class Rankings:
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2005: 18th
2006: 31st
2007: 25th
2008: 20th

Diagnosis: They're not going anywhere. Tech should contend for the ACC this season and for the forseeable future.


DUKE:
==================
If you were a Duke football fan prior to this season, you should be given some kind of an award. David Cutcliffe took over this season and fans couldn't be happier with the results thus far. In fact, the ACC in general should be excited about Duke, who was a doormat for what seemed like eons. In 2008, the Blue Devils are currently 3-2 going into this weekend's bye. Duke snapped their ACC losing streak when they hammered Virginia 31-3 on Sept 27th. They also have an impressive win over a Navy team that is a matchup problem for anyone. In addition to those wins, they were able to stick with Georgia Tech until the end of the 3rd quarter, when the wheels fell off. The real reason for excitement, despite the fact that Duke already tripled their win-total from last year, is the recruiting. David Cutcliffe is a QB master, associated with names like Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Brady Quinn, Eric Ainge, and Casey Clausen. Cutcliffe, who's career record is 44-29, has got this team energized. What a difference a coaching change can make.

Last 3 Seasons:
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2007: 1-11 (Ted Roof)
2006: 0-12 (Ted Roof)
2005: 1-10 (Ted Roof)

Class Rankings:
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2005: 31st (Ted Roof)
2006: 36th (Ted Roof)
2007: 64th (Ted Roof)
2008: 71st

Diagnosis: You give Cutliffe a nice piece of clay and he'll mold one of the best QB's in the country. It might just be freshman Sean Renfree. Duke is in good hands.


BOSTON COLLEGE:
================
In 2007, Jeff Jagodzinski took over for Tom O'Brien, the school's winningest head coach. O'Brien went back home to North Carolina, taking over at NC State. Jagodzinski was a former BC assistant, and was also an assistant for the Green Bay Packers. He inherited a pretty good football team, and the cupboard was anything but bare. In his inaugural season, he boasted an impressive 11-3 record and were conference runner-ups. So far in 2008, the Golden Eagles are 4-1 with a close loss to Georgia Tech. BC hasn't exactly played the world's greatest schedule en route to that 4-1 record, and Jagodzinski is going to have his work cut out for him as of next weekend when V-Tech comes to Boston. BC is set to take on 7 quality opponents to finish out the 2008 season. Matching that 11-3 mark from 2007 is probably a little bit of a stretch.

Last 3 Seasons:
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2007: 11-3 bowl win over Michigan State
2006: 10-3 (Tom O'Brien) bowl win over Navy
2005: 9-3 (Tom O'Brien) bowl win over Boise State

Class Rankings:
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2005: 58th (Tom O'Brien)
2006: 44th (Tom O'Brien)
2007: 50th
2008: 22nd

Diagnosis: Only really needs to compete with UCONN for talent in the upper Northeast. Don't expect BC to fall anywhere under 8-4 anytime soon.


VIRGINIA:
============
Is there a seat hotter than the one Al Groh is on? Prior to the ACC expansion, UVA, like Maryland, was slowly making themselves one of the best teams in the conference. You can almost make a case that Virginia's slip is not even Al Groh's fault. Why? Because when assistant coaches get offered head coaching gigs, that's a testament to the original program. Al Golden left and is doing great at Temple. Ron Prince left and is doing pretty well at K-State. Replacing one coordinator is hard enough, but two in one offseason? That's never a position you want to be in. Groh has been at UVA for 8 seasons and has a record of 51-37 heading into 2008. Last year, UVA was doing well until the last weeks of the season. This year, the Cavs are 2-3 heading into this weekend's game against East Carolina. The losses, however, have been brutal. UVA was destroyed in all 3 losses: USC, UCONN, and Duke. This is another one of the teams in the "Do Not Bet On or Against" club. After those defeats, UVA turned around and walloped Maryland. Your guess is as good as mine.

Last 3 Seasons:
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2007: 9-4 bowl loss to Texas Tech
2006: 5-7
2005: 7-5 bowl win over Minnesota

Class Rankings:
--------------------
2005: 14th
2006: 53rd
2007: 32nd
2008: 62nd

Diagnosis: Send more paramedics.


NORTH CAROLINA:
=================
It is one of the biggest misconceptions in college football that UNC had a terrible football team before Butch Davis showed up. Davis took over this program because this is a volcano waiting to erupt. It was only going to take the right coach to get this program into the stratosphere, and Davis is probably going to do it. When he was in Miami, he brought in the talent that led to back-to-back undefeated seasons. In addition to a plethora of youngsters who are playing very well at UNC this season, there are quite a few upperclassmen who are also doing their part, including the best corps of WRs in the nation. Davis is 55-28 as a head coach going into his 2nd year in Chapel Hill. The Heels are currently 4-1, with nice wins over Miami, Rutgers, and UCONN. The only loss is a heartbreaker to V-Tech, a game that may be fatal for the Heels in the conference race.

Last 3 Seasons:
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2007: 4-8
2006: 3-9 (John Bunting)
2005: 5-6 (John Bunting)

Class Rankings:
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2005: 34th (John Bunting)
2006: 25th (John Bunting)
2007: 14th
2008: 30th

Diagnosis: Every piece is in place for this program to get to the point where they are at the very top of the conference each season.


CLEMSON:
============
It almost seems cliche to knock this program, but I do get some satisfaction for being 5 years ahead of everyone else in doing it. Never in the history of modern athletics has a coach been so handsomely rewarded for such mediocrity. There is no debate over the athletes that Tommy Bowden has brought into this program, the problem continues to be with development and results from that development. In his 10th season now, heading into 2008 he has a record of 69-42. So far this year, the Tigers are an unimpressive 3-2 after starting the season with national title aspirations. Clemson was pummeled in the opening week by Alabama, 34-10 in a game that was even worse than the score indicated. They then picked up 3 wins (2 against FCS teams) and were defeated by Maryland. Pundits and geeks are rightfully baffled by Clemson's production this season, but once again everyone was duped. A closer look behind the glitz and glamour of the non-existent "Thunder and Lightning" backfield is that Clemson came into this season with the worst offensive line in the nation. Combine that with years of evidence of spotty coaching, and you understand why Clemson is doing what they are doing.

Last 3 Seasons:
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2007: 9-4 bowl loss to Auburn
2006: 8-5 bowl loss to Kentucky
2005: 8-4 bowl win over Colorado

Class Rankings:
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2005: 21st
2006: 22nd
2007: 23rd
2008: 11th

Diagnosis: Send more paramedics.


WAKE FOREST:
==============
You cannot say enough good things about the job Jim Grobe has done at Wake Forest. In his 8th year currently, heading into this season Grobe's record is 46-39. Almost all of those losses came in the first few years of his tenure. In 2005, Wake went 4-7, then won the conference in 2006. Last year they went 9-4, and are poised to do even better in 2008. But the real genius behind Jim Grobe is in the gems he finds in the recruiting process, finding kids with exceptional talent that have gone completely overlooked... even in an area where there are many, many schools. Moving forward, this should easily be a conference contender for years, as kids continue to buy into Grobe's philosophy. It just goes to show you that sometimes keeping a coach for a little while will bring big results. So far in 2008, the Deacons are 3-1 with wins over Baylor, Ole Miss, and FSU. They have a loss to Navy, a team with a reputation for giving nightmares.

Last 3 Seasons:
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2007: 9-4 bowl win over UCONN
2006: 11-3 bowl loss to Louisville
2005: 4-7

Class Rankings:
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2005: 60th
2006: 65th
2007: 63rd
2008: 67th

Diagnosis: Should not have any trouble staying where they are. They'll be in every conference championship discussion each offseason.


FLORIDA STATE:
===============
Everything in sports is cyclical. Sooner or later, FSU was going to end up going through a down-cycle. What happened was what happens to all great programs: assistant coaches get offered head-coaching gigs elsewhere. Replacing those assistants without missing a beat is an article all in itself. FSU has lost Mark Richt, Chuck Amato, to name a few. Bobby Bowden is obviously one of the best coaches of all time, but he was aided by the fact that when the Noles joined the ACC, the ACC was as bad as the Sun Belt. You lose some coaches and your opponents all start getting a little better, and you end up where FSU is right now. Bowden is now in his 33rd season at FSU, with a record prior to 2008 of 342-113-4. So far in 2008, the Noles are 4-1 with 2 wins over FCS teams and and a very ugly loss to Wake Forest. However, FSU has gotten 5 defensive starters back from suspension and is looking like they will be a bigtime player in how this 2008 conference race unfolds.

Last 3 Seasons:
-----------------
2007: 7-6 bowl loss to Kentucky
2006: 7-6 bowl win over UCLA
2005: 8-5 bowl loss to Penn State

Class Rankings:
-------------------
2005: 3rd
2006: 12th
2007: 33rd
2008: 8th

Diagnosis: The talent they get is awesome. FSU's future may hinge on what happens in 2009 with Bowden.


GEORGIA TECH:
===============
When Paul Johnson (107-39, overall) gets the kids in place to run this offense, there might not be a team in the ACC who will be able to stop it. In the past three seasons, Johnson's Navy Midshipmen led the nation in rushing all three years. You can't even put a pricetag on what Johnson was able to do at a service academy in today's age. In an era where high school athletes are not even really giving the academies the time of day, Johnson's performance is simply remarkable. He came up with an offense to give his teams an edge. Is it a gimmick? In a sense, yes, it is. But put that offense in a league that has really no annual heavyweight anymore, and a bunch of programs who are trying to find an identity. This is going to be like Navy on steroids. At Georgia Tech, Johnson can recruit the kids who would not go to Navy. But it will take a year or so to start really building this juggernaut. So far in 2008, things are actually looking better than anyone predicted. Tech is 4-1 with a win over Boston College, and the lone loss to Virginia Tech. The school did the right thing by replacing Chan Gailey. To be perfectly honest, the Ramblin' Wreck could very well be on the verge of their greatest era.

Last 3 Seasons:
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2007: 7-6 (Chan Gailey) bowl loss to Fresno State
2006: 9-5 (Chan Gailey) bowl loss to West Virginia
2005: 7-5 (Chan Gailey) bowl loss to Utah

Class Rankings:
--------------------------
2005: 48th (Chan Gailey)
2006: 49th (Chan Gailey)
2007: 15th (Chan Gailey)
2008: 37th

Diagnosis: Already ahead of schedule, and watch out!

[The Ancient Enemy]

This conference is a complete trainwreck.

[deliverance]

When I saw a bad Virginia team beat UNC yesterday, I just shook my head and laughed. Do you think Miami and Virginia Tech are wishing they would have never left the Big East?