Week 11 picks
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fleaflicker
- Official BleacherCoach
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Week 11 picks
Tuesday at 7:30 pm
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Marshall Thundering Herd
The Golden Eagles play two games this week, as they'll play another one Sunday night. In this first matchup, they travel to Marshall, needing a win to remain in control of the C-USA East. They will get their wish, as Marshall has fallen flat this year, and the Golden Eagles will be able to run all over them. Southern Miss by 10.
Wednesday at 7:30 pm
West Virginia Mountaineers at Cincinnati Bearcats
As much as it pains me to say this, especially with a team from the Big Weak, WVU is actually a very good team that could match up well with most of the other top 25 teams. Cincinnati is more like a bottom 25 team, with their biggest Big East victory coming against a very bad Syracuse team. WVU will have no mercy. They beat UConn by 32 last week. In their Wednesday game in a row, they will hang up half a hundred on UC. WVU by 35.
Thursday at 8:00 pm
Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs
This is, for all practical purposes, the WAC championship game. Boise State has dominated Fresno State for the past 3 or 4 years, winning every matchup with them in that time, and many of them were won quite decisively. However, this year appears to be different, as Boise State has struggles a bit with OOC games, and Fresno State appears to up to the challenge. But there was the game a few years back where Boise State upset an 8th ranked Fresno State team at home.... That won't happen this year, even though it will be close. Fresno State by 7.
Friday at 8:00 pm
Rutgers Scarlet Dragons at Louisville Cardinals
Did you know that heading into the Pittsburgh game last week, Louisville was averaging over 60 points a game at home? Wow. Home field advantage is definately worth more than three points in this stadium to this team. To Louisville, home field is worth more like 23 points. That's why Rutgers, even though they may be quite capable of beating Louisville in New Jersey, don't stand a chance on the road. Louisville by 21.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Marshall Thundering Herd
The Golden Eagles play two games this week, as they'll play another one Sunday night. In this first matchup, they travel to Marshall, needing a win to remain in control of the C-USA East. They will get their wish, as Marshall has fallen flat this year, and the Golden Eagles will be able to run all over them. Southern Miss by 10.
Wednesday at 7:30 pm
West Virginia Mountaineers at Cincinnati Bearcats
As much as it pains me to say this, especially with a team from the Big Weak, WVU is actually a very good team that could match up well with most of the other top 25 teams. Cincinnati is more like a bottom 25 team, with their biggest Big East victory coming against a very bad Syracuse team. WVU will have no mercy. They beat UConn by 32 last week. In their Wednesday game in a row, they will hang up half a hundred on UC. WVU by 35.
Thursday at 8:00 pm
Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs
This is, for all practical purposes, the WAC championship game. Boise State has dominated Fresno State for the past 3 or 4 years, winning every matchup with them in that time, and many of them were won quite decisively. However, this year appears to be different, as Boise State has struggles a bit with OOC games, and Fresno State appears to up to the challenge. But there was the game a few years back where Boise State upset an 8th ranked Fresno State team at home.... That won't happen this year, even though it will be close. Fresno State by 7.
Friday at 8:00 pm
Rutgers Scarlet Dragons at Louisville Cardinals
Did you know that heading into the Pittsburgh game last week, Louisville was averaging over 60 points a game at home? Wow. Home field advantage is definately worth more than three points in this stadium to this team. To Louisville, home field is worth more like 23 points. That's why Rutgers, even though they may be quite capable of beating Louisville in New Jersey, don't stand a chance on the road. Louisville by 21.
"To give anything less than the best is to sacrifice the gift." -Steve Prefontaine
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fleaflicker
- Official BleacherCoach
- Posts: 1947
- Joined: March 13th, 2004, 12:32 am
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fleaflicker
- Official BleacherCoach
- Posts: 1947
- Joined: March 13th, 2004, 12:32 am
Re: Week 11 picks
Ok, continuing with this week's games......
Saturday at noon
Massachusetts Minutemen at Army Black Knights
Missy Elliot says, "I don't want no minuteman." Army does, in fact, they want many minutemen! Why? So they can get an easy (maybe, as this is ARMY) win. In years past this would be fairly close, but Army has improved enough to win by a larger margin. Army by 17.
Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers
Clemson is an up and down team, and Florida State has lost at Virginia and to North Carolina State at home. Chuck says, "Thanks Bobby, I needed the extra job security." Anyways, FSU has clinched the Atlantic division already, and could lose out for a 7-4 record, and still play Miami in the ACC title game. However, they won't lose to Clemson, as they should have a bit of momentum going. FSU by 10.
Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Wolverines
Michigan has won three straight and has had a bye week to prepare for Indiania. Indiana has lost 4 straight and has not had a bye week to prepare. In other words, Michigan will win. However, the line is Michigan by 25, and I would be a little surprised if Indiana didn't at least cover the spread. They're a slightly better team than that. Michigan by 21.
Michigan State Spartans at Minnesota Golden Gophers
How did Michigan State manage to lose to Purdue, of all teams, last week? That is so confusing. That leaves the Spartans needing to win one of their last two games to get to a bowl. They go to Minnesota here, and host Penn State next week. Sorry, but I can't really see them winning either one, though desperation sometimes does things, so I have to cheer for them here so they are somewhat complacent when hosting PSU. Nonetheless, realistically, Minnesota by 10.
Maryland Terrapins at North Carolina Tar Heels
Maybe John Bunting does have a shot at getting his team to a bowl game. He's 4-4 after pulling the upset on Boston College, and Maryland isn't exactly a great team.... UNC by 3.
Northwestern Wildcats at Ohio State Buckeyes
Being here in Cincinnati, there will be many area televisions tuned in to watch this game. Northwestern has a bit of momentum after winning 4 of the past 5, and now, with 6 wins, they've clinched a bowl game. However, Ohio State is a really good team (still), and expect the Wildcats to come back down to earth a bit at the Horseshoe. Ohio State by 13.
Texas A&M Aggies at Oklahoma Sooners
Yeah, Oklahoma hasn't nearly matched expectations this year, losing to TCU, Texas, and UCLA, but all of them, combined, have a 26-2 record. And things are easier on Oklahoma since many of the other teams in the Big 12 are having a down year. Texas A&M is one of them. I wouldn't be too terribly surprised to see the Aggies pull the upset, but still surprised. Oklahoma by 14.
Connecticut Huskies at Pittsburgh Panthers
There is still hope for Pitt. Win the last two games of the season and they get 6 wins and, in all likelihood, a bowl game. But they have to win this game before they worry about the Backyard Brawl. That shouldn't be too terribly hard. UConn would be a better team, but they're down to the third string QB. Ouch! Pittsburgh by 13.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue is having a really awful year after coming into it expecting to compete for the Big Ten crown. In fact, Purdue has removed themselves from bowl contention after having 6 losses. There is still one team in the Big Ten worse than Purdue, and they will be travelling to West Lafayette tomorrow to take them on. Purdue by 10.
Saturday at 12:30 pm
Florida Gators at South Carolina Gamecocks
It will be a little strange for Gator fans to see the Old Ball Coach on the other sideline, but I'm sure it's a welcome relief for Gamecock fans. Florida has just come off a huge victory over Georgia, and a close victory over Vanderbilt, both at Gainesville. Can you smell an upset here travelling to USC after two emotional home games? I sure can. South Carolina by 3.
Saturday at 1:00 pm
North Texas Mean Green at Florida Atlantic Owls
On the road again. North Texas has 2 wins on the season, and both of them have come on the road. Why is that? Perhaps because they don't have to deal with the home fans booing them. Anyways, normally I would give FAU the win here since they are at home, but North Texas seems to travel well, and plays better when they are booed by the other team's fans rather than their own fans. North Texas by 3.
Buffalo Bulls at Kent State Golden Flashes
This is a really close matchup between the two worst teams in the MAC. To give you an idea of how bad this is, the combined record of the two teams is 1-17. After tomorrow (after all, somebody has to win) it will be 2-18. And Buffalo, the team that is due for a win, won't get it. Why? Two reasons: One, they are on the road, and two, the team is in some turmoil after the university announced that the coach was getting canned. Kent State by 6.
Navy Midshipmen at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The best of the service academies comes to South Bend (ironically, in northern Indiana) to play against the 7th ranked Fighting Irish. Whether they deserve to be ranked that high is another story, but anyways.... Navy has a really good ground attack, and can throw the ball sometimes. Notre Dame has a prolific offense that, guided by the arm of Brady Quinn, can do both. Advantage: Notre Dame. Fighting Irish by 20.
Saturday at 1:30 pm
South Florida Bulls at Syracuse Orange
I swear, the Orange cannot do anything right between the endzones. That is why it is so rare to see Syracuse score. In fact, it's a myth that Syracuse has been cursed by their own football field because it is tired of being used for a Big Weak team. Anyways, South Florida by 13.
Saturday at 2:00 pm
Arkansas Razorbacks at Mississippi Rebels
They both managed to get one win over a I-AA team, and they both lost to Vanderbilt. Neither team is any good. However, I'll have to give the Rebel's defense some credit. They aren't great, but they do keep other teams from making it a blowout. Ole Miss by 3.
Baylor Bears at Missouri Tigers
Neither of these teams is great, and Baylor has a shot at pulling the upset here since they are having a great year (by Baylor standards). However, this defense is going to have some problems. Two words: Brad Smith. Baylor won't be able to contain him. Missouri by 16.
Kansas State Wildcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nebraska has had problems on the road, as their only road win of the season to date is against Baylor. However, at home, they can hold serve with the better teams in the Big 12, losing by only 3 to Texas Tech, and 7 to Oklahoma, and winning the other 4 games. The Huskers need one more win so that they can go to a bowl game and lose. This is a home game, and it isn't against one of the better teams in the Big 12. Here's win number 6. Nebraska by 7.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State, despite beating Texas for one half, is the worst team in the entire Big 12, and that is including Baylor. Unless Texas Tech catches Longhornitis (the mysterious disease that allowed Texas to go into halftime down by 16), this game won't even be close. Texas Tech by 38.
Memphis Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers
This game is going to be dead even. Tennessee's offense is pitiful, but their defense is pretty good. The Tigers have a great offense, but their defense is pitiful. The line says Tennessee by 18, but I guarentee that Memphis covers, if they don't win. I wouldn't be surprised by the upset, but I think Tennessee's offense will do just enough against the Tigers horrid defense to win. Tennessee by 3.
Kentucky Wildcats at Venderbilt Commodores
Vandy has to win out to make a bowl game, and that means beating UK at home and winning on the road at Tennessee. With Tennessee increasingly vulnerable, this looks more and more doable. First though, Vandy has to handle the pitiful UK Wildcats. They should be able to do that, especially with UK playing for nothing, and Vandy playing with a bowl game on the line. Vanderbilt by 13.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Western Michigan Broncos
There's some interesting stats here. Both teams have winning records (CMU is 5-4, WMU is 6-3), yet both teams allow more yardage on defense than they get on offense. And CMU's allows opponents to get 22.8 ppg, which is exact same amount that CMU scores per game. This is pretty interesting. However, Western Michigan has an offense that is much better at scoring (35 ppg) and a defense that is worse at keeping opponents off the scoreboard (31 ppg). However, offense and home field advantage will work for WMU, and help keep CMU out of the MAC title game if Toledo should fall. WMU by 6.
Saturday at 3:00 pm
San Diego State Aztecs at Colorado State Rams
San Diego hasn't been entirely horrible this year on defense, but still, they're a horrible team. Colorado State would normally be in contention for the MWC if TCU (the conference newcomer) wasn't running the entire MWC slate. Is this a possible letdown? Not really. CSU becomes bowl eligible with this win. Rams by 13.
Louisiana Monroe Indians at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
If Louisiana Monroe loses this game, the whole Sun Belt conference becomes a mess, with 4 or 5 teams tied for first place in the Sun Belt. As horrible as this conference is, you can't say that it doesn't have parity. However, I don't think the Indians will lose. LA Monroe by 3.
Tulane Green Wave at Rice Owls
Ok, make sure you're sitting down when you read this: Rice, the loser of 8 games and the winner of none, is favored to win this game. That's right, the line on the game is Rice by one. What are the oddsmakers smoking? Whatever it is, it must be some good stuff. Tulane has only won two games, but they still aren't totally and completely horrible. Rice is. Tulane by 13.
East Carolina Pirates at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
East Carolina is still playing for a winning season, provided that they can win out. However, that isn't going to happen. Playing a game at Tulsa as a C-USA member is not one of your favorite things to do. It certainly isn't on ECU's list. Anyways, Tulsa by 17.
Saturday at 3:30 pm
LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide
College gameday is coming to this game, where Alabama will try to extend its unbeaten streak. Interestingly enough, the 9-0 Crimson Tide is a 3 point dog coming into this matchup. If they can win this matchup, win at Auburn, and beat Georgia in the SEC title game, they are every bit as deserving as Texas, if not more so, to go to the Rose Bowl. Not that that is too likely to happen. I can see a loss here, or a loss at Auburn, or a loss at the SEC title game. I think the last one is the one most likely to ruin their perfect season. This one could, but I will reluctantly take Alabama in this one. Their defense seems to step it up when they need to. Crimson Tide by 3.
USC Trojans at California Golden Bears
Ok everybody, just settle down. I am well aware that USC's last loss came at Berkeley a bit over two years ago (as they've won 31 since), and I realize that USC is traveling to Berkeley on Saturday. However, I also realize that Cal is playing a QB that started the season at third string (first two are out with injuries) and that they give up 230 yards passing each game, for one of the worst secondaries in the NCAA. Matt Leinart is going to tear this secondary a new arse. USC by 20.
Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Longhorns
Kansas, after winning one game last year (well, maybe two), is now one game away from becoming bowl eligible. Guess what? That win sure isn't going to come at Texas. Kansas though, has a good enough defense, that they might be able to avoid getting utterly annihilated. MIGHT being the key word. Texas by 31.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Cavaliers
Georgia Tech is 6-2, and still in the race for the ACC title. All they need is a VT loss (not very likely) and a win at Miami (possibly even less likely). Yeah, it's a long shot, but still mathematically possible. For right now they'll concentrate on getting their seventh win of the season, which looking at their schedule, is the last one they are likely to get. GT by 10.
Miami (FL) Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
This is the best team in the ACC against the second worst team in the ACC. However, to Wake's credit, they are still way better than the worst team in the ACC, Duke. Oh yeah, and basketball season is under way. That helps. Miami by 27.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Wisconsin Badgers
This is the last game that Barry Alverez will be coaching against a Big Ten opponent. He will move on to grander things in retirement. The Badgers, a very solid team, will come out fired up for this one and give their coach a grand send off by giving him his last win against a Big Ten opponent. Wisconsin by 13.
Saturday at 4:00 pm
Nevada Wolf Pack at New Mexico State Aggies
How low can you go? That is the question NMSU is asking after going 0-9, with the latest a 50 point loss at Boise State. Fortunately for the Aggies, they travel to San Jose State and host Utah State to end the season, two winnable games even for the worst team in NCAA football. And why is Nevada only a 10 point favorite? Nevada by 21.
UCF Golden Knights at UAB Blazers
What do you know, UCF has clinched a bowl game with its latest win, and can go to the C-USA title game with two more wins and a Souther Miss loss. The Golden Knights will certainly handle their end of the deal tomorrow. Isn't it wonderful what confidence can do for a football team? UCF by 7.
Saturday at 5:00 pm
Lousiana Tech Bulldogs at Idaho Vandals
The Vandals will get thrashed while about a dozen onlookers watch from the stands, with perhaps 3 of them remaining at the end of the game. Seriously, who wants to watch such a horrible team? Louisiana Tech by 30.
Saturday at 6:00 pm
Washington Huskies at Arizona Wildcats
Is Arizona due for a big letdown after beating the stuffing out of UCLA, or are they due for a big letdown? Well, since they no longer have to worry about playing for a bowl game, they'll perform a lot better without any pressure. Arizona by 7.
Brigham Young Cougars at Wyoming Cowboys
Brigham Young needs one more win to become bowl eligible, and one more loss makes Wyoming bowl ineligible. Unfortunately for Wyoming, BYU has been on a tear as of late, so they'll use this win to become bowl eligible. Brigham Young by 7.
Ball State Cardinals at Eastern Michigan Eagles
Well, I missed this pick, and Ball State won. But honestly, I would have picked Eastern Michigan by about 14 points.
Saturday at 6:30 pm
New Mexico Lobos at Utah Utes
At first glance, this appears to be pretty close, with two 5-4 MWC teams fighting for their sixth win to clinch a possible bowl berth. Looking closer though, Utah's defense, while giving up 370 yards per game to New Mexico's 368, is allowing only 20 ppg to New Mexico's 29. Something else to look at is Utah's offense is putting up 466 yards per game to New Mexico's 410, and 284 of those yards are coming through the air, which is the weakness of New Mexico's defense. In other words, expect an air show from Utah for the win. Utah by 10.
Stanford Cardinal at Oregon State Beavers (6:35 pm)
Typical Pac 10 matchup, all offense, no defense. Both teams have awful defenses that are giving up over 30 ppg. And both teams have offenses that are actually scoring a bit less than that. However, Stanford's offense isn't as good as Oregon State's, and OSU's air attack will leave an awful Stanford secondary gasping for air. Yeah, Matt Moore has been very erratic lately, but this is a good game for him to get back on track. Oregon State by 10.
Saturday at 7:00 pm
Troy Trojans at Arkansas State Indians
Troy doesn't seem to have much luck on the road. This is, after all, a team that lost to Louisiana Lafayette away from their home stadium. The only team they beat on the road was North Texas, which for some reason, seems to have a curse attached to them when they are playing at home. So I can't take Troy on the road, even if Arkansas State is coming off a 45-7 beating at Middle Tennessee. They aren't that bad, if they come around. Arkansas State by 3.
Colorado Buffalos at Iowa State Cyclones
This is between the best team in the Big 12 North, and the hottest team in the Big 12 North. However, Colorado is better than Iowa State is hot. And even better for Colorado is that Iowa State often chokes when they are playing for more than a crappy bowl berth. However, this is in Ames. So, I'll take Colorado by 13.
Florida International Golden Panthers at Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns
Wow, all that barely fits on one line, and for two teams that are both ten times worse than 99% of the teams outside of the Sun Belt conference. You know, I think Temple could beat them. Anyways, Louisiana Lafayette has been having some luck this year when playing in conference foes, at least lately. They have three straight wins. And after this game, they'll take a shot at the conference title by playing LA Monroe for all the marbles. But for right now, Louisiana Lafayette by 7.
UNLV Rebels at TCU Horned Frogs
TCU has a pretty sweet deal here. This is their last game of the regular season. Win or lose, they have clinched the MWC title. With a win, and some respect from the pollsters and computers, their lone loss was early enough that possibly, by week 15, they could enough love to jump into a BCS bowl. It's a very very long shot (like 1 in a thousand), but still possible. More likely is that they'll play a late December bowl game against another tough mid major foe (Fresno State perhaps) or a decent BCS conference foe (Northwestern maybe). In any case, they have over a month and a half to prepare. I'm getting ahead of myself. TCU can't, and won't. After all, they did lose to SMU, paying the price for looking past a bad opponent. TCU by 30.
Arizona State Sun Devils at UCLA Bruins
Arizona State gets a break here. UCLA is coming off their first loss of the season, which was a 52-14 pasting at Arizona. Will they be able to come back after that? I don't know. They were bound to lose sooner or later with all those fourth quarter comebacks, but in such ugly fashion? That's going to haunt them. UCLA needs a gut check, and I don't think they're quite good enough to overcome. Arizona State by 3.
Saturday at 7:15 pm
North Carolina State Wolfpack at Boston College Eagles
This is a more resilient team than UCLA. Though I must say I'm rather disappointed in Boston College for continuing their tradition of losing games that they shouldn't. It's a bad habit they've carried over from the Big East. They won't lose 2 straight though. They rarely do. And NC State's bound to come back to earth after pulling an upset over Florida State. BC by 7.
Saturday at 7:45 pm
Auburn Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs
This would be the SEC game of the week but for LSU-Bama. Even so, Auburn, though they have a very respectable 7-2 record, has simply been winning the games they should win and losing the games they should lose. Assuming that continues, they will lose to Bama next week, and lose to Georgia this week. They got the rough part of the schedule late. Besides, Georgia has some momentum after having a bye week and getting D.J. Shockley back. Bulldogs by 10.
Saturday at 9:05 pm
Texas Southern Tigers at UTEP Miners
Why even bother? This is a one win Division I-AA team against a 7 win C-USA team. If Texas Southern can't beat I-AA opponents, what makes anybody think they stand a chance against UTEP? There's no line on this, because if there were one, it would be so bad, that even Buffalo's AD would have to reconsider before saying that their program is in total despair. UTEP by 45.
Saturday at 10:15 pm
Oregon Ducks at Washington State Cougars
This is slightly better. A half decent PAC 10 game pitting an underrated Oregon team (well, perhaps overrated at 11 in the polls) with one loss to USC, against, wait a minute. Wazzou has 6 straight losses? And they haven't won a single game against a PAC 10 opponent? Oh shoot, and one of those 3 wins is against Grambling State!! This isn't going to be pretty folks. Women and children should stay at home. Oregon by 24.
Saturday at 11:00 pm
Utah State Aggies at Hawaii Warriors
Utah State isn't totally hopeless. They did beat UNLV and San Jose State, though both were home games. Hawaii, however, is better than those two programs, and they have quite the home field advantage, as they are in a completely different time zone that is three hours behind any other I-A team's time. That's beside being about 2500 miles from the nearest I-A team. That's quite a home field advantage. Hawaii by 10.
Sunday at 5:00 pm
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Houston Cougars
How fitting that the same team that started the week by beating Marshall in overtime will end the week by trying to pull out another win at Houston. Houston is an interesting team. They are 4-4, and they have never strung 2 losses together. They lost last week to UCF on Saturday, a close game, but an away game. Now they play host to a Southern Miss team that has had only 5 days to prepare, and has spent considerable emotional energy on winning the last game in OT. Not to mention that this is the second road game they'll play in less than a week. The scheduling gods have not been kind to Southern Miss. They're due for a letdown. So I'll take the upset. Houston by 3.
Saturday at noon
Massachusetts Minutemen at Army Black Knights
Missy Elliot says, "I don't want no minuteman." Army does, in fact, they want many minutemen! Why? So they can get an easy (maybe, as this is ARMY) win. In years past this would be fairly close, but Army has improved enough to win by a larger margin. Army by 17.
Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers
Clemson is an up and down team, and Florida State has lost at Virginia and to North Carolina State at home. Chuck says, "Thanks Bobby, I needed the extra job security." Anyways, FSU has clinched the Atlantic division already, and could lose out for a 7-4 record, and still play Miami in the ACC title game. However, they won't lose to Clemson, as they should have a bit of momentum going. FSU by 10.
Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Wolverines
Michigan has won three straight and has had a bye week to prepare for Indiania. Indiana has lost 4 straight and has not had a bye week to prepare. In other words, Michigan will win. However, the line is Michigan by 25, and I would be a little surprised if Indiana didn't at least cover the spread. They're a slightly better team than that. Michigan by 21.
Michigan State Spartans at Minnesota Golden Gophers
How did Michigan State manage to lose to Purdue, of all teams, last week? That is so confusing. That leaves the Spartans needing to win one of their last two games to get to a bowl. They go to Minnesota here, and host Penn State next week. Sorry, but I can't really see them winning either one, though desperation sometimes does things, so I have to cheer for them here so they are somewhat complacent when hosting PSU. Nonetheless, realistically, Minnesota by 10.
Maryland Terrapins at North Carolina Tar Heels
Maybe John Bunting does have a shot at getting his team to a bowl game. He's 4-4 after pulling the upset on Boston College, and Maryland isn't exactly a great team.... UNC by 3.
Northwestern Wildcats at Ohio State Buckeyes
Being here in Cincinnati, there will be many area televisions tuned in to watch this game. Northwestern has a bit of momentum after winning 4 of the past 5, and now, with 6 wins, they've clinched a bowl game. However, Ohio State is a really good team (still), and expect the Wildcats to come back down to earth a bit at the Horseshoe. Ohio State by 13.
Texas A&M Aggies at Oklahoma Sooners
Yeah, Oklahoma hasn't nearly matched expectations this year, losing to TCU, Texas, and UCLA, but all of them, combined, have a 26-2 record. And things are easier on Oklahoma since many of the other teams in the Big 12 are having a down year. Texas A&M is one of them. I wouldn't be too terribly surprised to see the Aggies pull the upset, but still surprised. Oklahoma by 14.
Connecticut Huskies at Pittsburgh Panthers
There is still hope for Pitt. Win the last two games of the season and they get 6 wins and, in all likelihood, a bowl game. But they have to win this game before they worry about the Backyard Brawl. That shouldn't be too terribly hard. UConn would be a better team, but they're down to the third string QB. Ouch! Pittsburgh by 13.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue is having a really awful year after coming into it expecting to compete for the Big Ten crown. In fact, Purdue has removed themselves from bowl contention after having 6 losses. There is still one team in the Big Ten worse than Purdue, and they will be travelling to West Lafayette tomorrow to take them on. Purdue by 10.
Saturday at 12:30 pm
Florida Gators at South Carolina Gamecocks
It will be a little strange for Gator fans to see the Old Ball Coach on the other sideline, but I'm sure it's a welcome relief for Gamecock fans. Florida has just come off a huge victory over Georgia, and a close victory over Vanderbilt, both at Gainesville. Can you smell an upset here travelling to USC after two emotional home games? I sure can. South Carolina by 3.
Saturday at 1:00 pm
North Texas Mean Green at Florida Atlantic Owls
On the road again. North Texas has 2 wins on the season, and both of them have come on the road. Why is that? Perhaps because they don't have to deal with the home fans booing them. Anyways, normally I would give FAU the win here since they are at home, but North Texas seems to travel well, and plays better when they are booed by the other team's fans rather than their own fans. North Texas by 3.
Buffalo Bulls at Kent State Golden Flashes
This is a really close matchup between the two worst teams in the MAC. To give you an idea of how bad this is, the combined record of the two teams is 1-17. After tomorrow (after all, somebody has to win) it will be 2-18. And Buffalo, the team that is due for a win, won't get it. Why? Two reasons: One, they are on the road, and two, the team is in some turmoil after the university announced that the coach was getting canned. Kent State by 6.
Navy Midshipmen at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The best of the service academies comes to South Bend (ironically, in northern Indiana) to play against the 7th ranked Fighting Irish. Whether they deserve to be ranked that high is another story, but anyways.... Navy has a really good ground attack, and can throw the ball sometimes. Notre Dame has a prolific offense that, guided by the arm of Brady Quinn, can do both. Advantage: Notre Dame. Fighting Irish by 20.
Saturday at 1:30 pm
South Florida Bulls at Syracuse Orange
I swear, the Orange cannot do anything right between the endzones. That is why it is so rare to see Syracuse score. In fact, it's a myth that Syracuse has been cursed by their own football field because it is tired of being used for a Big Weak team. Anyways, South Florida by 13.
Saturday at 2:00 pm
Arkansas Razorbacks at Mississippi Rebels
They both managed to get one win over a I-AA team, and they both lost to Vanderbilt. Neither team is any good. However, I'll have to give the Rebel's defense some credit. They aren't great, but they do keep other teams from making it a blowout. Ole Miss by 3.
Baylor Bears at Missouri Tigers
Neither of these teams is great, and Baylor has a shot at pulling the upset here since they are having a great year (by Baylor standards). However, this defense is going to have some problems. Two words: Brad Smith. Baylor won't be able to contain him. Missouri by 16.
Kansas State Wildcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nebraska has had problems on the road, as their only road win of the season to date is against Baylor. However, at home, they can hold serve with the better teams in the Big 12, losing by only 3 to Texas Tech, and 7 to Oklahoma, and winning the other 4 games. The Huskers need one more win so that they can go to a bowl game and lose. This is a home game, and it isn't against one of the better teams in the Big 12. Here's win number 6. Nebraska by 7.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State, despite beating Texas for one half, is the worst team in the entire Big 12, and that is including Baylor. Unless Texas Tech catches Longhornitis (the mysterious disease that allowed Texas to go into halftime down by 16), this game won't even be close. Texas Tech by 38.
Memphis Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers
This game is going to be dead even. Tennessee's offense is pitiful, but their defense is pretty good. The Tigers have a great offense, but their defense is pitiful. The line says Tennessee by 18, but I guarentee that Memphis covers, if they don't win. I wouldn't be surprised by the upset, but I think Tennessee's offense will do just enough against the Tigers horrid defense to win. Tennessee by 3.
Kentucky Wildcats at Venderbilt Commodores
Vandy has to win out to make a bowl game, and that means beating UK at home and winning on the road at Tennessee. With Tennessee increasingly vulnerable, this looks more and more doable. First though, Vandy has to handle the pitiful UK Wildcats. They should be able to do that, especially with UK playing for nothing, and Vandy playing with a bowl game on the line. Vanderbilt by 13.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Western Michigan Broncos
There's some interesting stats here. Both teams have winning records (CMU is 5-4, WMU is 6-3), yet both teams allow more yardage on defense than they get on offense. And CMU's allows opponents to get 22.8 ppg, which is exact same amount that CMU scores per game. This is pretty interesting. However, Western Michigan has an offense that is much better at scoring (35 ppg) and a defense that is worse at keeping opponents off the scoreboard (31 ppg). However, offense and home field advantage will work for WMU, and help keep CMU out of the MAC title game if Toledo should fall. WMU by 6.
Saturday at 3:00 pm
San Diego State Aztecs at Colorado State Rams
San Diego hasn't been entirely horrible this year on defense, but still, they're a horrible team. Colorado State would normally be in contention for the MWC if TCU (the conference newcomer) wasn't running the entire MWC slate. Is this a possible letdown? Not really. CSU becomes bowl eligible with this win. Rams by 13.
Louisiana Monroe Indians at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
If Louisiana Monroe loses this game, the whole Sun Belt conference becomes a mess, with 4 or 5 teams tied for first place in the Sun Belt. As horrible as this conference is, you can't say that it doesn't have parity. However, I don't think the Indians will lose. LA Monroe by 3.
Tulane Green Wave at Rice Owls
Ok, make sure you're sitting down when you read this: Rice, the loser of 8 games and the winner of none, is favored to win this game. That's right, the line on the game is Rice by one. What are the oddsmakers smoking? Whatever it is, it must be some good stuff. Tulane has only won two games, but they still aren't totally and completely horrible. Rice is. Tulane by 13.
East Carolina Pirates at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
East Carolina is still playing for a winning season, provided that they can win out. However, that isn't going to happen. Playing a game at Tulsa as a C-USA member is not one of your favorite things to do. It certainly isn't on ECU's list. Anyways, Tulsa by 17.
Saturday at 3:30 pm
LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide
College gameday is coming to this game, where Alabama will try to extend its unbeaten streak. Interestingly enough, the 9-0 Crimson Tide is a 3 point dog coming into this matchup. If they can win this matchup, win at Auburn, and beat Georgia in the SEC title game, they are every bit as deserving as Texas, if not more so, to go to the Rose Bowl. Not that that is too likely to happen. I can see a loss here, or a loss at Auburn, or a loss at the SEC title game. I think the last one is the one most likely to ruin their perfect season. This one could, but I will reluctantly take Alabama in this one. Their defense seems to step it up when they need to. Crimson Tide by 3.
USC Trojans at California Golden Bears
Ok everybody, just settle down. I am well aware that USC's last loss came at Berkeley a bit over two years ago (as they've won 31 since), and I realize that USC is traveling to Berkeley on Saturday. However, I also realize that Cal is playing a QB that started the season at third string (first two are out with injuries) and that they give up 230 yards passing each game, for one of the worst secondaries in the NCAA. Matt Leinart is going to tear this secondary a new arse. USC by 20.
Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Longhorns
Kansas, after winning one game last year (well, maybe two), is now one game away from becoming bowl eligible. Guess what? That win sure isn't going to come at Texas. Kansas though, has a good enough defense, that they might be able to avoid getting utterly annihilated. MIGHT being the key word. Texas by 31.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Cavaliers
Georgia Tech is 6-2, and still in the race for the ACC title. All they need is a VT loss (not very likely) and a win at Miami (possibly even less likely). Yeah, it's a long shot, but still mathematically possible. For right now they'll concentrate on getting their seventh win of the season, which looking at their schedule, is the last one they are likely to get. GT by 10.
Miami (FL) Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
This is the best team in the ACC against the second worst team in the ACC. However, to Wake's credit, they are still way better than the worst team in the ACC, Duke. Oh yeah, and basketball season is under way. That helps. Miami by 27.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Wisconsin Badgers
This is the last game that Barry Alverez will be coaching against a Big Ten opponent. He will move on to grander things in retirement. The Badgers, a very solid team, will come out fired up for this one and give their coach a grand send off by giving him his last win against a Big Ten opponent. Wisconsin by 13.
Saturday at 4:00 pm
Nevada Wolf Pack at New Mexico State Aggies
How low can you go? That is the question NMSU is asking after going 0-9, with the latest a 50 point loss at Boise State. Fortunately for the Aggies, they travel to San Jose State and host Utah State to end the season, two winnable games even for the worst team in NCAA football. And why is Nevada only a 10 point favorite? Nevada by 21.
UCF Golden Knights at UAB Blazers
What do you know, UCF has clinched a bowl game with its latest win, and can go to the C-USA title game with two more wins and a Souther Miss loss. The Golden Knights will certainly handle their end of the deal tomorrow. Isn't it wonderful what confidence can do for a football team? UCF by 7.
Saturday at 5:00 pm
Lousiana Tech Bulldogs at Idaho Vandals
The Vandals will get thrashed while about a dozen onlookers watch from the stands, with perhaps 3 of them remaining at the end of the game. Seriously, who wants to watch such a horrible team? Louisiana Tech by 30.
Saturday at 6:00 pm
Washington Huskies at Arizona Wildcats
Is Arizona due for a big letdown after beating the stuffing out of UCLA, or are they due for a big letdown? Well, since they no longer have to worry about playing for a bowl game, they'll perform a lot better without any pressure. Arizona by 7.
Brigham Young Cougars at Wyoming Cowboys
Brigham Young needs one more win to become bowl eligible, and one more loss makes Wyoming bowl ineligible. Unfortunately for Wyoming, BYU has been on a tear as of late, so they'll use this win to become bowl eligible. Brigham Young by 7.
Ball State Cardinals at Eastern Michigan Eagles
Well, I missed this pick, and Ball State won. But honestly, I would have picked Eastern Michigan by about 14 points.
Saturday at 6:30 pm
New Mexico Lobos at Utah Utes
At first glance, this appears to be pretty close, with two 5-4 MWC teams fighting for their sixth win to clinch a possible bowl berth. Looking closer though, Utah's defense, while giving up 370 yards per game to New Mexico's 368, is allowing only 20 ppg to New Mexico's 29. Something else to look at is Utah's offense is putting up 466 yards per game to New Mexico's 410, and 284 of those yards are coming through the air, which is the weakness of New Mexico's defense. In other words, expect an air show from Utah for the win. Utah by 10.
Stanford Cardinal at Oregon State Beavers (6:35 pm)
Typical Pac 10 matchup, all offense, no defense. Both teams have awful defenses that are giving up over 30 ppg. And both teams have offenses that are actually scoring a bit less than that. However, Stanford's offense isn't as good as Oregon State's, and OSU's air attack will leave an awful Stanford secondary gasping for air. Yeah, Matt Moore has been very erratic lately, but this is a good game for him to get back on track. Oregon State by 10.
Saturday at 7:00 pm
Troy Trojans at Arkansas State Indians
Troy doesn't seem to have much luck on the road. This is, after all, a team that lost to Louisiana Lafayette away from their home stadium. The only team they beat on the road was North Texas, which for some reason, seems to have a curse attached to them when they are playing at home. So I can't take Troy on the road, even if Arkansas State is coming off a 45-7 beating at Middle Tennessee. They aren't that bad, if they come around. Arkansas State by 3.
Colorado Buffalos at Iowa State Cyclones
This is between the best team in the Big 12 North, and the hottest team in the Big 12 North. However, Colorado is better than Iowa State is hot. And even better for Colorado is that Iowa State often chokes when they are playing for more than a crappy bowl berth. However, this is in Ames. So, I'll take Colorado by 13.
Florida International Golden Panthers at Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns
Wow, all that barely fits on one line, and for two teams that are both ten times worse than 99% of the teams outside of the Sun Belt conference. You know, I think Temple could beat them. Anyways, Louisiana Lafayette has been having some luck this year when playing in conference foes, at least lately. They have three straight wins. And after this game, they'll take a shot at the conference title by playing LA Monroe for all the marbles. But for right now, Louisiana Lafayette by 7.
UNLV Rebels at TCU Horned Frogs
TCU has a pretty sweet deal here. This is their last game of the regular season. Win or lose, they have clinched the MWC title. With a win, and some respect from the pollsters and computers, their lone loss was early enough that possibly, by week 15, they could enough love to jump into a BCS bowl. It's a very very long shot (like 1 in a thousand), but still possible. More likely is that they'll play a late December bowl game against another tough mid major foe (Fresno State perhaps) or a decent BCS conference foe (Northwestern maybe). In any case, they have over a month and a half to prepare. I'm getting ahead of myself. TCU can't, and won't. After all, they did lose to SMU, paying the price for looking past a bad opponent. TCU by 30.
Arizona State Sun Devils at UCLA Bruins
Arizona State gets a break here. UCLA is coming off their first loss of the season, which was a 52-14 pasting at Arizona. Will they be able to come back after that? I don't know. They were bound to lose sooner or later with all those fourth quarter comebacks, but in such ugly fashion? That's going to haunt them. UCLA needs a gut check, and I don't think they're quite good enough to overcome. Arizona State by 3.
Saturday at 7:15 pm
North Carolina State Wolfpack at Boston College Eagles
This is a more resilient team than UCLA. Though I must say I'm rather disappointed in Boston College for continuing their tradition of losing games that they shouldn't. It's a bad habit they've carried over from the Big East. They won't lose 2 straight though. They rarely do. And NC State's bound to come back to earth after pulling an upset over Florida State. BC by 7.
Saturday at 7:45 pm
Auburn Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs
This would be the SEC game of the week but for LSU-Bama. Even so, Auburn, though they have a very respectable 7-2 record, has simply been winning the games they should win and losing the games they should lose. Assuming that continues, they will lose to Bama next week, and lose to Georgia this week. They got the rough part of the schedule late. Besides, Georgia has some momentum after having a bye week and getting D.J. Shockley back. Bulldogs by 10.
Saturday at 9:05 pm
Texas Southern Tigers at UTEP Miners
Why even bother? This is a one win Division I-AA team against a 7 win C-USA team. If Texas Southern can't beat I-AA opponents, what makes anybody think they stand a chance against UTEP? There's no line on this, because if there were one, it would be so bad, that even Buffalo's AD would have to reconsider before saying that their program is in total despair. UTEP by 45.
Saturday at 10:15 pm
Oregon Ducks at Washington State Cougars
This is slightly better. A half decent PAC 10 game pitting an underrated Oregon team (well, perhaps overrated at 11 in the polls) with one loss to USC, against, wait a minute. Wazzou has 6 straight losses? And they haven't won a single game against a PAC 10 opponent? Oh shoot, and one of those 3 wins is against Grambling State!! This isn't going to be pretty folks. Women and children should stay at home. Oregon by 24.
Saturday at 11:00 pm
Utah State Aggies at Hawaii Warriors
Utah State isn't totally hopeless. They did beat UNLV and San Jose State, though both were home games. Hawaii, however, is better than those two programs, and they have quite the home field advantage, as they are in a completely different time zone that is three hours behind any other I-A team's time. That's beside being about 2500 miles from the nearest I-A team. That's quite a home field advantage. Hawaii by 10.
Sunday at 5:00 pm
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Houston Cougars
How fitting that the same team that started the week by beating Marshall in overtime will end the week by trying to pull out another win at Houston. Houston is an interesting team. They are 4-4, and they have never strung 2 losses together. They lost last week to UCF on Saturday, a close game, but an away game. Now they play host to a Southern Miss team that has had only 5 days to prepare, and has spent considerable emotional energy on winning the last game in OT. Not to mention that this is the second road game they'll play in less than a week. The scheduling gods have not been kind to Southern Miss. They're due for a letdown. So I'll take the upset. Houston by 3.
"To give anything less than the best is to sacrifice the gift." -Steve Prefontaine
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fleaflicker
- Official BleacherCoach
- Posts: 1947
- Joined: March 13th, 2004, 12:32 am
UCF is going to be pretty jubiliant tomorrow at practice. They are now first in the C-USA East division, and provided they win their final game (Rice), they are in the C-USA title game. Southern Miss lost to Houston (interestingly enough, by 3, 27-24), so they no longer hold first place with the tie breaker over UCF. Save a UCF loss to Rice, nothing's going to change that. Score one for the team that has lost 17 straight coming into this season, and now stands a game at Rice away from winning their division. Wow. What a turnaround for this team!
"To give anything less than the best is to sacrifice the gift." -Steve Prefontaine
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The Ancient Enemy
- Official BleacherCoach
- Posts: 7549
- Joined: October 30th, 2004, 2:47 pm
Re: Week 11 picks
Yeah and we'll still hear idiots talking about how Tulane playing football this season is the biggest story of the year, not O'Leary at UCF, not Penn State, not Notre Dame either. Tulane would have lost every game they lost already, regardless of where it was located. They are TULANE. Hurricane or not.
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fleaflicker
- Official BleacherCoach
- Posts: 1947
- Joined: March 13th, 2004, 12:32 am
It is unfortunate how the pundits will probably talk about how big it is that Tulane is playing football, when really, that's great, but their team still sucks. They didn't play any better or worse because of the hurricane. In fact, they should have played better because their entire fall semester was canceled, and they didn't have to worry about classes like every other school in the land.
Anyways, after this week's picks, for the games that we are counting as competition, I went 35-19 for a total of 408-139. You made up 3 games of the four game lead by going 38-16 for a total of 407-140.
Including the Week 10 Saturday picks, which you didn't do (and won't be counted for scorekeeping), I went 35-14 that Saturday, for a total of 443-153.
Anyways, after this week's picks, for the games that we are counting as competition, I went 35-19 for a total of 408-139. You made up 3 games of the four game lead by going 38-16 for a total of 407-140.
Including the Week 10 Saturday picks, which you didn't do (and won't be counted for scorekeeping), I went 35-14 that Saturday, for a total of 443-153.
"To give anything less than the best is to sacrifice the gift." -Steve Prefontaine