College football playoff megathread

[Birda]

WE ARE...going to the Rose Bowl.

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[El-Moldo]

"IF", the biggest word in the English language. Words like "they should have" deal with hypotheticals. My whole point is YOU are giving TOO MUCH WEIGHT to how a team is playing at the end of the season, and seem to forget the month of September. One of PSU's arguments is how good they were playing at season's end, but at the same time conveniently pooh-pooh their 1st 4 games. Maybe the NCAA should print out T-shirts that say "All Games Matter".

[abpk2903]

I'm a PSU fan but I can understand the logic behind leaving them out but no matter what they are going the committee is going to have to talk out of both sides of their mouth to leave someone out.

Clemson and Alabama are both 1 loss or less power 5 champs that look the part and played a "big-boy" OOC schedule. They are both in. In my opinion seeds 1 and 2.

After that the committee is selecting 2 of the following 4 to complete the top 4. Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and Washington

If they select Michigan that lost 2 of their final 3 games and only won a game at Rutgers out of the state of Michigan all year, and finished in 3rd place of its division of its conference, over a conference champion it will be hard for this committee to explain that to the public. Really the only argument they can use is they feel they a unequivocally better than 2 other of these 4 teams. 

Ohio State beat Michigan head to head, has 1 less loss, played a more challenging out of conference schedule, and finished higher in the conference. So the only way Michigan gets in is if Ohio State does too.

They can't really use the fact that Michigan played a more challenging OOC schedule than Washington for the fact they both scheduled cellar dwelling power 5 teams at home. Michigan got lucky that Colorado had a remarkable run but the fact is they were the worst power 5 team for the 10 years leading into that game. If you are going to reward the teams for the results of their OOC scheduled teams, then you have to account for the fact Penn State played 2 teams that will most likely be ranked at the end of the season (Temple and Pitt). Temple is not a perennial threat but this year they've been very good. Ohio State played the best OOC team in Oklahoma on the road but Tulsa and Bowling Green doesn't provide the quantity of OOC challenenges PSU had in 2 ranked teams.

Washington and Penn State are both conference champions and are very close. Washington has one less loss but Penn State has 2 better wins and a much more challenging schedule. Both teams have blown out most of the lesser teams on the back half of their schedule and both teams have a loss in which they looked completely overmatched in every facet of the game (Michigan for PSU and USC for Washington). I really can't separate these teams. 

Does the committee discuss getting better throughout the year and how a team closes their resume? If they do, that doesn't look well for Michigan and probably is Penn State's best argument.  

Does the committee discuss injuries? You can't mention Penn State playing Michigan without 9 defensive starters and top 7 depth chart LBs without mention Michigan played Iowa and Ohio State with a busted up QB in a QB driven offensive system.

The head-to-head discussion is just a nightmare. A beat B at home, but B beat C at home, and C beat A at home.  All 3 B1G teams in the discussion played some common opponents. They all beat Wisky but 1 score, they all struggled against Indiana, they all crushed Maryland, and Penn State looked much better against Michigan State but got the advantage of playing them at home. 

I could go on all day. In sure the committee has.

[Opinionguy]

After the banter of bleachercoaches' college playoff committee, I'm going with the following prediction:
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Ohio State
4 Washingtom
5 Penn State
6 Oklahoma
7 Michigan

Here is my reasoning in the mess that it is. This scenario places a divide between 1 loss and 2 loss teams and also puts an emphasis on conference championships. So the committee can still say conference champs matter but OSU is unequivocally better. All these top 7 will still be going to a major bowl, and it just seems to make the most sense.
The problem:  they are rewarding Washington for playing a cupcake OOC schedule. A loss to Pitt OOC likely costs PSU, which Pitt ends Top 25 and beat a top 3 team. So the committee is sending a message to win your conference, schedule cupcakes, and the rest will take care of itself. 
Michigan would have the same argument as PSU. They have much better wins than Washington, but play in a much tougher conference. They have a quality OOC win that is equal to Washinton's best win. 
I can see how the committee picks the top four I have listed and can live with it. But it shows the system is still junk. 
And for the record I do agree with Konjo on one point. #4 absolutely matters- if you are dancing you have a shot. Alabama's weakest link is their secondary. They are not unbeatable. 

[BlueYonder]

I like Pitt and  I don't really like PSU.  However, PSU should get in the playoff, along with Bama, Clemson, and Washington.  Four teams who played and won an extra game against a quality opponent (that they could have lost) and WON their respective conference title.  Each of their conferences were very good conferences.  Each team had two or less losses and each have multiple wins against ranked teams.  I really don't know what the controversy is.  That being said, they are going to probably put OSU in.  I don't understand it.

If they want to put in the "best" four teams, they should have bookmakers from Las Vegas pick the teams - they will know which four teams have the best chance of winning it all.  That is how ridiculous FBS football is compared to any other sport at any other level.  Everybody else lets the teams decide.   An analogy would be after districts in high school football, a committee picking the teams that are in the state playoffs - picking the four or eight teams in each class who should play for a state title, and then them considering Beaver.  Beaver may have been one of the four best teams in Class AAA in the state, but they didn't qualify for the WPIAL playoffs (them missing the playoffs is another story).

Anyway - if they do put OSU in, I think you  have to go with Washington over PSU - but there is an argument there.  But anybody who thinks that Michigan should be in the playoffs are out of their minds - IMO.  Michigan won one game outside the state of Michigan this year - and that was against Rutgers - probably the worst Power 5 team out there.  They were third place (out of seven teams) in their division.  They have two losses.  I could go on.

One other thing - Rob Rossi of the Fan 93.7 is so annoying.  This morning he was saying that PSU, Bama, OSU, and Michigan should be in the playoffs.  Three Big Ten teams!  And then when people would call in to disagree with him, he would just say, "you're wrong, I'm right, its my show, goodbye, loser".  Even if you are a Big Ten fan, putting three teams in the playoff is a radical idea.  Anyway - I can't stand that guy.

By the way - Pitt is the only team to beat two of the Power 5 conference winners this year.  Overall, I think all Pitt and PSU fans can agree that both teams did well this year. 

[konjo78]

I mean here is the simplest argument for mich over penn state, 49-10. You cant ignore that at all.


Will be an interesting day! Happy penn state will be going to the rose bowl to play usc

[GoldenRamsFAN]

My prediction would be PSU vs Colorado in the rose bowl.

[BlueYonder]

I mean here is the simplest argument for mich over penn state, 49-10. You cant ignore that at all.


Will be an interesting day! Happy penn state will be going to the rose bowl to play usc

If that is your argument, then why did the Big Ten not let Michigan play Wisconsin for the Big Ten Championship.  It is because it is not all about 1 game.

[konjo78]

I agree its about 12 or 13!!!! So lets look at all 12 of 13.


Mich had better wins throughout the year.

Mich won the head to head.

Penn state won the conference (because it ignores OOC games).

If penn state wanted to be top 4 just take care of pitt

[Crimson's Ghost]

The top 4 from last week will be the top 4 this week.   Penn State 5, Oklahoma 6, Michigan 7. 

Penn State will play Colorado or USC in the Rose Bowl.